The UK is retrofitting 25 million homes for energy efficiency by 2030 at a cost of roughly £10 billion a year—and a recent low-energy refurbishment of 400 homes in northern England failed completely due to moisture damage, costing millions to fix. This matters because the built environment is a complex system where fixing one thing—like sealing a home to save heat—can trigger unintended consequences elsewhere, such as trapped moisture that harms health, damages property, and undermines the entire decarbonisation plan. Current research approaches treat buildings as isolated problems rather than interconnected systems. The team at UCL’s Complex Built Environment Systems group is developing a new interdisciplinary framework—called systems thinking—to predict and prevent these failures before they happen. They have already piloted this approach in a project on housing, energy, and wellbeing, working closely with government, industry, and community groups. If successful, this research could transform how the UK spends its £10 billion annual retrofit budget, ensuring homes are healthier, more durable, and genuinely energy-efficient. It could also reshape how infrastructure, supply chains, and building regulations are designed—systems that quietly affect every household but are rarely thought about as a whole.
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The first Complex Built Environment Systems (CBES) Platform Grant consolidated a truly interdisciplinary, world-leading research group which focussed on the complexity of the context of our research activities and seeded a new Institute (UCL Energy). The second Platform Grant underpinned the development of a strategic programme of fundamental research aimed at understanding the unintended consequences of decarbonising the built environment, enabled CBES to become a world leader in this area and seeded three new UCL Institutes (Environmental Design & Engineering, Sustainable Heritage and Sustainable Resources). Supported by a third Platform Grant, our vision for CBES is now to transform scientific understanding of the systemic nature of a sustainable built environment. In a recent award-winning paper, resulting from our work under the current Platform Grant, we identified over 100 unintended consequences of energy efficiency interventions in homes. Taking moisture as just one example, we can demonstrate why a systems thinking approach is now so vital. By 2030, it will be government policy that every home in the UK will benefit from measures to improve energy efficiency. This is approximately 25 million homes - all our homes will be affected in some way. The total cost will be ~ £10 billion a year. The UK only has the chance once to do this correctly. Unfortunately, it is now clear that we are not dealing with these complex issues correctly. For example, a recent low energy refurbishment of ~400 dwellings in the north of England has had a 100% failure rate due to disastrous moisture issues which will cost millions to rectify. This has huge implications for the entire decarbonisation plan, for the health of the building occupants, for the communities involved and for the economic value of these properties. For the issue of moisture therefore, we have taken the decisive step to set up the new 'UK Centre for Moisture in Buildings' to link building engineering physics, health, building use, quality and process in a coherent way. Our thesis therefore, more widely, is that the built environment is a complex system that can only be successfully tackled via a new interdisciplinary systems thinking approach - performance emerges from the interplay of fundamental engineering and physical factors with process and structure. Such a systems thinking process was piloted in our project 'Housing, Energy and Wellbeing' (HEW) in the current Platform Grant and has led to close collaboration with a very large body of stakeholders from government, industry, NGOs and community groups who provide an invaluable resource for future research. Enabling this new, systemically integrated approach to built environment research will require a major change in the way we undertake our research - this will be a fundamental departure from business as usual. The development of such a novel methodological framework and the associated re-structuring and development of an interdisciplinary research group will involve a strategic, long-term perspective as well as some risk. The flexible Platform funding will be vital here in that it will enable approaches not possible with responsive mode funding. There are also likely to be some key policy changes in this specific area over the next 5 years - Platform funding will enable us to react to research opportunities in a timely manner and dynamically maintain research leadership in the field. The careers of CBES team members will be managed and developed through strategic action. Career development activities specifically enabled by Platform funding will include: (i) a new series of regular 'systems thinking' workshops to develop personal research agendas within our broader system of research; (ii) new industrial/policy mentoring via secondments; (iii) new skills training for staff through external training courses; (iv) enhanced stakeholder engagement via our unique series of regular workshops.
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