Deep learning algorithms now diagnose illness, drive cars, and make legal judgements—yet no one can fully explain how they reach their decisions. This programme grant aims to fix that by building a rigorous mathematical foundation for deep learning, turning what one leading computer scientist called "alchemy" into a proper science. The core problem is that deep learning has advanced so fast that its theoretical underpinnings have not kept pace. Without a clear mathematical link between the data fed into these algorithms and the decisions they produce, the results remain mysterious and untrustworthy. This lack of explainability makes it risky to deploy deep learning in high-stakes settings such as medical diagnostics, weather forecasting, and climate modelling. If the research succeeds, it could transform deep learning from a black box into a transparent, trustworthy tool. The investigators will develop both new theory and new algorithms, then test them in concrete applications including image processing, environmental modelling, and—potentially—faster, more accurate weather and climate forecasts than existing physics-based methods. The work also includes outreach to policymakers and the public, addressing the societal concerns that rapid adoption of opaque algorithms has raised.
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Machine learning (ML), in particular Deep Learning (DL) is one of the fastest growing areas of modern science and technology, which has potentially enormous and transformative impact on all areas of our life. The applications of DL embrace many disciplines such as (bio-)medical sciences, computer vision, the physical sciences, the social sciences, speech recognition, gaming, music and finance. DL based algorithms are now used to play chess and GO at the highest level, diagnose illness, drive cars, recruit staff and even make legal judgements. The possible applications in the future are almost unlimited. Perhaps DL methods will be used in the future to predict the weather and climate, of even human behaviour. However, alongside this explosive growth has been a concern that there is a lack of explainability behind DL and the way that DL based algorithms make their decisions. This leads to a lack of trustworthiness in the use of the algorithms. A reason for this is that the huge successes of deep learning is not well understood, the results are mysterious, and there is a lack of a clear link between the data training DL algorithms (which is often vague and unstructured) and the decisions made by these algorithms. Part of the reason for this is that DL has advanced so fast, that there is a lack of understanding of its foundations. According to the leading computer scientist Ali Rahimi at NIPS 2017: 'We say things like "machine learning is the new electricity". I'd like to offer another analogy. Machine learning has become alchemy!' Indeed, despite the roots of ML lying in mathematics, statistics and computer science there currently is hardly any rigorous mathematical theory for the setup, training and application performance of deep neural networks. We urgently need the opportunity to change machine learning from alchemy into science. This programme grant aims to rise to this challenge, and, by doing so, to unlock the future potential of artificial intelligence. It aims to put deep learning onto a firm mathematical basis, and will combine theory, modelling, data, computation to unlock the next generation of deep learning. The grant will comprise an interlocked set of work packages aimed to address both the theoretical development of DL (so that it becomes explainable) and the algorithmic development (so that it becomes trustworthy). These will then be linked to the development of DL in a number of key application areas including image processing, partial differential equations and environmental problems. For example we will explore the question of whether it is possible to use DL based algorithms to forecast the weather and climate faster and more accurately than the existing physics based algorithms. The investigators on the grant will be doing both theoretical investigations and will work with end-users of DL in many application areas. Mindful that policy makers are trying to address the many issues raised by DL, the investigators will also reach out to them through a series of workshops and conferences. The results of the work will also be presented to the public at science festivals and other open events.
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