Active Mathematics & Statistics Computing & AI

Statistical aspects of non-linear inverse problems

In plain English

AI plain-English summary

Every time a doctor interprets an MRI scan, a weather forecaster runs a climate model, or an autonomous vehicle processes sensor data, they are solving an inverse problem—working backwards from measurements to infer hidden causes. But when those problems are non-linear (the real world almost always is), the mathematical tools used to produce those answers come with few guarantees about their reliability. This project aims to build a rigorous statistical theory for Bayesian inversion methods, which are widely used to generate uncertainty estimates and "error bars" for such complex inference tasks. Currently, only a handful of formal guarantees exist for these algorithms, leaving scientists and policymakers unsure whether the outputs can be trusted. If successful, the research would provide a mathematical foundation that explains when these methods work, when they fail, and how much confidence to place in their results. This is fundamental science—there is no immediate practical application—but the same kind of deep mathematical theory has historically underpinned breakthroughs in medical imaging, climate prediction, and data assimilation. A clearer understanding of these methods could eventually make any system that relies on reconstructing hidden information from noisy data more reliable.

View original technical description
Statistical aspects of non-linear inverse problems The study of inverse problems forms an active field at the interface of applied and pure mathematics as well as the statistical, physical and biological sciences. Prototypical examples include parameter identification in partial differential equations (PDEs) but also tomography and data assimilation problems. While the theory can reach deep into delicate injectivity theorems and regularity theory for PDEs, applications feature prominently in various branches of applied sciences and more specifically in numerical analysis, imaging, statistics. These inference problems have recently drawn significant interest in the context of statistical data science, specifically through the development of Bayesian methods and related MCMC algorithms after seminal work by Andrew Stuart (2010). These can be used in high- or infinite-dimensional, non-linear, non-convex problems, and provide essential uncertainty quantification methods and 'error bars' for algorithmic outputs in complex inference tasks. Only very few rigorous statistical and computational guarantees for these algorithms are currently available, and whether such methods can be trusted in applications to the sciences and policy making remains unclear. The goal of this project is to close this gap and to build a satisfactory mathematical theory that explains both the empirical success and inherent limitations of Bayesian non-linear inversion methods in the context of 21st century data science.

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Researchers

Richard Nickl (Principal Investigator)

Related Research

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Probabilistic numerical methods for Inverse Problems
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Stochastic Gradient Descent in Banach Spaces

Original classification

Research Grant

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