Environmental consumption, production, and voting preferences: corresponding implications for structural transformation in Brazil

The role of evolving preferences over consumption goods has long been understood as a determinant of the pattern of structural transformation. However, the role that will be played by consumption preferences over particularly 'green' and 'brown' goods during the required climate transition is less well understood. The climate transition is also a 'structural transformation' problem - an issue of evolving sectoral structure -- and there is scope for extension of traditional analysis from development economics and development studies to the emergent problem of realising a just and developmental transition. Among the important socio-economic and political considerations for key stakeholders to ponder in driving forth climate action are the following issues: 1) that consumption preferences are likely to differ depending on where an individual sits in the income distribution; 2) that there may be conflict within firms over the choice of production technique since this influences the energy-intensity and emissions path of production; and 3) that workers and firm-owners, as well as other actors, influence the political process as voters, independent of their respective roles in consumption and production. In short, there are significant behavioural elements to the climate transition that require better empirical and theoretical understanding. Without understanding this behaviour, strategising a just and developmental transition to a greener economy is impossible. The central objective of this research is correspondingly to strategise how to reconcile structural transformation (raising the share of manufacturing production in total output) with the just transition. Given the historic energy intensity of manufacturing, this will be no mean feat, but it is surely one of the central global challenges for environmental activists, trade unions, policymakers -- and academics to strategise today. To do so, we aim to generate new empirical and theoretical insights into how preferences over consumption, production techniques, and voter behaviour impact the climate transition. Specifically, using the Brazilian context as an initial starting point, our research will help better understand preferences and behaviour in developing countries regarding these three crucial dimensions to the just transition. The research will consist of a survey investigating individual behaviour in each of these three dimensions and heterogeneity in behaviour along these dimensions. The objective of the research is to channel knew knowledge about behaviour of the aforementioned key actors to policy-relevant insights that can inform emboldened climate action for trade unionists, environmental activists, central bankers, treasury officials, and presidencies. The potential benefits could not be greater; a policy and political regime geared toward a reconciled vision for economic emancipation and climate action in the parts of the world in greatest need.