Reimagining Preparedness under Climate Extremes

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events that have limited historical precedent (for example, floods in historically drought-prone areas). Such events create significant uncertainties for local communities as well as private and public agencies across the world. Under such conditions, standard approaches may not be sufficient because the prediction of such events and their cascading impacts is not always possible. Instead, approaches that work with uncertainty and build reliability i.e., safe and stable delivery of services to minimise impact amidst conditions of high variability, are required. Responding to this challenge, this Fellowship (FLF) aims to explore and test strategies for climate preparedness that are attuned to uncertainties by focusing on and working with mid-level policy actors who craft and shape responses to climate-induced hazards by 'governing on the go', leveraging their social, affective (emotional) and tacit skills. Unlike elite policymakers, they are embedded within systems for a longer period and leverage accumulated learning and relational skills to adapt their decisions by quickly judging the social, political and environmental feasibility of actions on the ground. These are vital for building preparedness and resilience but have largely remained underexplored in standard approaches. The FLF will focus on hydrological extremes (droughts and floods) in India, Bangladesh and the UK, observing and working with mid-level policy actors (such as emergency/disaster managers; water infrastructure operators/engineers; control room operators) to explore their strategies of uncertainty management. Drawing on cross-disciplinary perspectives and methodological innovation combining social sciences, arts and design and storyline approaches, the FLF will identify what is working best, where, and why, and co-produce excellent applied research to amplify reach and impact. To do so it will: (1) Explore and analyse the agency, decision-making, relational and affective practices of mid-level actors to conceptualise uncertainty management; (2) Pilot and test the emergent framework(s) with practitioners to generate actionable strategies that can be applied in policy settings; and (3) Establish and lead a 'community of practice' on uncertainty management and preparedness for knowledge sharing and long-term impact. Given the huge social, economic and ecological costs of these hazards, the results and outputs derived from the FLF will be relevant for global, national and local policy actors engaged in climate preparedness and adaptation, disaster risk reduction, and anticipatory action. The FLF will generate new knowledge on the capacities, skills and institutional arrangements required to respond to uncertainties and how these can be harnessed to build preparedness, both within the specific context of hydrological extremes and for other turbulent settings. The research, networks and capabilities produced during this FLF will be leveraged to influence and shape the emerging research agenda of governance and preparedness under climate extremes. The FLF will provide the PI with the protected time and singular focus to design, execute and lead a large grant catapulting them as a thought leader in this area.