England’s ruined castles, abbeys, and Roman forts are being overrun by vegetation that could either protect or destroy them, depending on how future climate shifts play out. This matters because heritage managers currently have no reliable way to predict which plant species will thrive under compound climate hazards—simultaneous changes in temperature, rainfall, and extreme weather. Some vegetation, like ivy, can accelerate stone decay, while other species form a protective "soft capping" layer that shields ruins from rain and frost. The project fills a gap by combining species distribution modelling with on-the-ground case studies across the National Heritage Collection. If successful, the research will produce a hazard map for ruined sites across England, a clear classification of which plants are beneficial, harmful, or neutral for conservation, and practical guidelines for managing vegetation adaptively. This could transform how English Heritage and other custodians prioritise maintenance budgets and plan for a warmer, wetter future. The work is applied and directly actionable—it does not aim to answer a fundamental scientific question, but to give site managers the tools they need to make evidence-based decisions about vegetation in a changing climate.
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Compound climate hazards (such as the combination of temperature and rainfall changes and extreme events) pose serious risks for England’s built heritage. In particular, compound hazards will affect vegetation growth – some species of which are known to cause deterioration, while other forms of vegetation provide protection. This project aims to understand how such compound hazards will affect the growth and management of vegetation across the National Heritage Collection, with a focus on ruined sites. The project will combine a numerical modelling approach (to provide a generalised picture of risk across the whole Collection) with a case study-based approach (to provide a more detailed assessment of the how compound hazards will affect the nature and impacts of vegetation at varied sites across a range of locations). The project objectives are to: (a) understand the key vegetation types found at English built heritage sites and whether they are deteriorative, benign or protective; (b) explore how compound climate hazards in future will affect the distribution of these vegetation types across the national built heritage collection in England, and what impacts this will have on deterioration risks; and (c) how the challenges and opportunities of compound climate hazards and vegetation can best be anticipated and adapted to through pro-active sustainable management. The student will use species distribution modelling approaches already pioneered by the supervisory team to predict changes in soft capping vegetation caused by climate change. They will also provide a balanced assessment of the impact of different vegetation types across England. The project outcomes will be a hazard map for ruins across England, an improved understanding of what vegetation types are good, bad or benign for the conservation of ruined sites, and practical guidelines for managing vegetation at ruined sites in a more ‘nature positive’ way given the changes wrought by future compound climate hazards.
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