Recipient organisationUniversity of EssexSource-published name: University of Essex
Funding£398K
PeriodMar 2025 — Mar 2028
In plain English
AI plain-English summary
A new computer model will simulate entire lifetimes—from birth to death—for hundreds of thousands of people across five European countries, tracking how their sense of well-being rises and falls with jobs, family changes, health crises, and economic shocks. Researchers currently lack the data to see how subjective well-being (how people *feel* about their lives) interacts with objective measures (income, health, employment) over decades. Surveys capture only snapshots. This project fills that gap by using dynamic microsimulation—a technique that mathematically grows synthetic populations from real survey data, generating complete life-course trajectories that no single study could ever follow in real time. If the model works, it will let policymakers test interventions before spending public money. For example, they could simulate whether extending parental leave or offering retraining after a recession does more to protect well-being across an entire population. The project compares five countries with different welfare systems—Germany, the UK, Spain, Poland, and Sweden—so results will show which policies work best under which social safety nets. This is fundamental social science: it builds a tool for understanding how life events accumulate into long-term well-being, rather than delivering an immediate practical fix.
View original technical description
Well-being is a multi-dimensional concept that spans a variety of life domains and time scales, affected by variable determinants across the life course. As such, it eludes simple analytical frameworks, and calls for an integrated perspective. Data limitations, however, significantly constrain empirical analyses. The relationship between subjective and objective measures of well-being is also difficult to analyse in the absence of retrospective information on individual histories and prospective information reflecting expectations for the future, all of which bear upon a broad interpretation of well-being. Against this background, we propose a step-change in the analysis of well-being by using dynamic microsimulation methods to augment existing data sources. Preliminary analysis of interrelationships between individual well-being and multiple life domains - including work, family, and health - will be of stand-alone interest, in addition to forming the basis for integrating measures of well-being in a state-of-the-art dynamic microsimulation model. The new model will allow us to generate in silico complete life-course trajectories from existing survey data. We propose to use our innovative microsimulation approach to analyse the distributional dynamics of well-being over the life course for five European countries, reflective of diverse welfare regimes: Germany (conservative), United Kingdom (liberal), Spain (Mediterranean), Poland (post-Communist) and Sweden (Nordic). Analysis will explore how well-being is affected by aggregate and individual crises, distinguishing between personal shocks, and macro-economic events. A key focus of research interest will be the efficacy of policy interventions designed to enhance the resilience of individual and social well-being to considered crises. The project will build capacity in modelling methods, enhance expertise in wellbeing research and develop new collaborations and partnerships.
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