European welfare states must cut carbon emissions while also protecting the people most vulnerable to the economic shocks of that transition—but the two goals currently clash. The problem is that the same economic growth models that fund generous welfare systems are themselves a major driver of climate change. WELRISCC examines how established welfare states in Europe respond to this paradox. The research focuses on a “third generation” of social risks—climate-induced threats to people’s capabilities, freedoms, and opportunities—and compares how different countries’ welfare systems handle them. If successful, the project will identify which policy approaches effectively protect disadvantaged populations during the net-zero transition, and why some welfare states adapt better than others. This matters because poorly managed climate policies risk deepening inequality and eroding public support for the very reforms needed to avert environmental catastrophe. The findings could reshape how governments design social safety nets, unemployment support, and retraining programmes for industries hit by decarbonisation—systems that quietly underpin economic stability for millions.
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Climate change poses a major threat to social well-being, defined here as the capabilities, freedom and opportunities people have to lead fulfilling lives (Gough 2017, 106). Planetary warming has ushered in a less predictable and more dangerous new world, one that threatens livelihoods, challenges fair resource distribution, and heightens global insecurity across generations. A swift transition into a ‘net zero transition' (NZT) is essential to mitigate these impacts; yet the path to NZT must also protect the disadvantaged populations and regions whose well-being such a transition can most easily harm. European welfare states, having functionally accompanied and ideationally legitimated economic and societal reforms since their inception, can be expected to play a pivotal role in addressing the social ills brought on by climate change. For this, they would need to reshape capabilities, freedoms, and opportunities. Yet – and this is the crux of the problem – the economic growth models and comprehensive welfare systems of affluent countries are itself a major driver of climate change. Paradoxically, to protect constituents’ well-being and their own political legitimacy, welfare states must democratically enact major economic and social reforms in sectors that actually rely on the need for continued economic growth. WELRISCC (Welfare State Responses to Social Risks in Times of Climate Change) innovatively examines how established welfare states respond to climate-induced social risks to enhance human well-being. Focusing on a ‘third generation’ of social risks, we comparatively analyse various welfare states to identify how and why their risk responses differ. WELRISCC aligns with themes I, II, and IV of ‘Enhancing well-being for the future’ by studying the link between environ-mental challenges and well-being (theme II), and by addressing the economic and political factors driving risk responses that consider issues of well-being (themes I and IV).
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