Climate Resilient Heat Electrification for Net-Zero Emission Whole Energy Systems (RENEW)

The RENEW project tackles the urgent requirement to reduce carbon emissions in the UK’s heating sector, a major contributor to the nation’s overall emissions. The UK has established a legally binding target to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, with heating presently accounting for a third of these emissions, mainly from natural gas usage. Decarbonising this sector is crucial for meeting climate change objectives and presents significant challenges due to its scale and integration complexities. Electrified heating systems at both communal and household levels can offer viable routes towards decarbonisation when supplied by a net-zero electricity sector, as electric heat pumps can deliver 3-5 units of heat output for each unit of electricity input. Communal systems, such as district heating networks powered by large, highly efficient heat pumps, are particularly promising, potentially offering substantial cost savings. However, increased demand on the electricity grid during extreme cold periods, which may also coincide with low renewable energy production, could strain the system, potentially leading to serious supply disruptions. To address these challenges, the RENEW project proposes a whole-system analysis approach through refining the Whole-electricity System Investment Model (WeSIM). This tool has been previously developed by the RENEW research team to identify cost-efficient investment and operational strategies for low-carbon energy systems and has a strong track record in providing evidence to policymakers and stakeholders in the UK. RENEW will build upon previous work by its research team and enhance the WeSIM tool to better accommodate electrified district heating technologies. The upgraded tool will use climate-based models to generate projections for future extreme weather conditions, which will affect electricity and heat demand but also renewable energy production. The contributions of the RENEW project are multifaceted. Firstly, it will gather extensive historical data and employ climate models to simulate future weather conditions, and in particular extreme events that could severely impact the energy system. Secondly, it will upgrade the WeSIM model to optimise the deployment of electrified heating technologies for projected future climate extremes, focusing on the optimal type, capacity, and location of technologies such as air-, ground-, and water-source heat pumps. Thirdly, the project will identify cost-effective, climate-resilient pathways for the UK’s integrated electricity and heat sectors, enhancing energy supply security against extreme conditions. The project is organised into five main work packages, led by researchers from the three collaborating universities with strong track records in energy systems and resilience studies. Work packages include: 1) managing the project, 2) generating data-driven climate scenarios, 3) upgrading the WeSIM tool as open-source, 4) applying the tool to case studies for evaluating adaptation strategies to climate extremes in energy systems, and 5) stakeholder engagement and dissemination. The RENEW project involves a team of world-leading researchers from Newcastle University, Brunel University London, and Imperial College London whose expertise spans climate change impacts, whole-energy system modelling, and decision-making under uncertainty in energy systems. In addition, close collaboration is envisaged with stakeholders at regional/national levels, including the Association for Decentralised Energy, Birmingham Energy Institute, Department for Energy Security & Net Zero, Energy Demand Research Centre, Met Office, Newcastle City Council and Northern Powergrid. This broad collaboration aims to accelerate RENEW’s impact and ensure its alignment with national energy and climate policies, providing a holistic strategy for a transition to a just and prosperous net-zero future.