Co-designing Climate-Resilient Development Pathways: A Framework for Enhancing Inclusive Decision-making across the Food-Water-Land-Ecosystems NeXus in Ethiopia (CRED-FWLEX)
Floods and droughts in Ethiopia have already displaced 95,000 people and destroyed 60,000 hectares of cropland in 2024 alone, yet the country’s climate policies treat food, water, land, and ecosystems as separate problems rather than interconnected ones. This matters because previous studies ignored how decisions in one sector—say, expanding irrigation for agriculture—can worsen water scarcity or trigger soil erosion in another, leading to over- or under-estimation of what climate adaptation actually requires. The project brings together farmers, policymakers, and water managers to build a decision-support framework that maps these trade-offs and synergies across the food-water-land-ecosystem nexus. If successful, the framework could help Ethiopia design cross-sectoral climate strategies that avoid unintended consequences, reduce disaster risk, and support sustainable resource use. The work is not fundamental science; it is a practical tool aimed directly at improving how the country plans for a climate-resilient future, with potential knock-on effects for food security, water access, and biodiversity conservation.
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Ethiopia is one of the fastest-growing East African economies with rapid agricultural intensification/transformation and energy production expansion/diversification [1]. Yet, millions of people still live in poverty and without access to basic necessities, e.g., food, water, energy. Ethiopia is also highly vulnerable to climatic shocks (e.g., floods/droughts) and other natural hazards (e.g., landslides/soil erosion) that continuously undermine development efforts and exacerbate poverty levels [2]. In 2024, as of May alone, ~0.6 million people were affected by floods, with 95,000 people displaced, 60,000ha cropland damaged, ~3,000 livestock deaths, and >90 districts with reported cholera outbreaks [3]. These factors present ‘wicked’ challenges for Ethiopia, with cascading and far-reaching repercussions for food production, water resources, land use, and ecosystem conservation/restoration; collectively known as the Food-Water-Land-Ecosystems (FWLE) nexus dilemma; understanding of which is fundamental for achieving at least six of the seventeen Sustainable Development Goals [4]: SDG2 (e.g., sustainable food production); SDG6 (improving water-use efficiency); SDG11 (planned urbanisation); SDG12 (integrated water/land management); SDG13 (data-driven climate policy); SDG15 (biodiversity loss reduction). Previous studies ignore FWLE nexus interactions, resulting in over-/under-estimation of critical climate adaptation needs [5]. Furthermore, Ethiopia’s current climate policies are often siloed and sector-focused, failing to capture the complex FWLE nexus synergies/trade-offs and limiting the ability to develop robust cross-sectoral climate adaptation strategies [6]. This project brings together a diverse group of stakeholders to develop a decision support framework that integrates climate resilience across the FWLE nexus, offering evidence-based guidance for sustainable resources use/management, disaster risk reduction, and long-term development planning in Ethiopia [7].
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