Developing And Validating Predictive Models For Clinical Outcomes In Mild Autonomous Cortisol Secretion

Benign adrenal tumours (non-cancerous growths on the adrenal glands) are found in 1-7% of adults. These tumours may either not affect hormone levels at all or cause a mild increase in the stress hormone cortisol, without the obvious symptoms of Cushing’s syndrome. This condition is called mild autonomous cortisol secretion (MACS) and is seen in about 1 in 5 to 1 in 2 people with these tumours. People with MACS are more likely to have serious health problems such as heart disease, stroke, high blood pressure, and type 2 diabetes. They may also have a higher risk of dying earlier. However, we currently don’t have good tools to tell which people with MACS are most at risk and who would benefit the most from early treatment. In this project, we aim to build risk prediction tools to estimate the chances of future health problems and early death in people with these tumours. We are using existing data from patients who have had these tumours for at least three years and have been monitored for health issues such as high blood pressure, diabetes, heart attacks, strokes, or death. Our ultimate goal is to create a free online tool that doctors can use at the time of diagnosis to estimate a patient’s risk. This tool will take into account simple information like age, sex, smoking status, and medical history, helping guide personalised care for people with these adrenal tumours.