Completed Heart, Stroke & Blood NIHR-supported project Computing & AI

Combining data and AI to predict heart problems following Covid

In plain English

AI plain-English summary

A doctor trying to predict a patient’s risk of heart attack or stroke after a Covid-19 diagnosis currently relies on standard clinical scores that may miss important signals buried in messy, disconnected data. This project addresses a specific gap: existing risk prediction tools are built on either electronic health records (which only capture people who seek healthcare) or longitudinal studies (which follow a limited group of participants). Neither dataset alone represents the full population. By combining both types of data within a secure data environment—the UK Longitudinal Linkage Collaboration—the researchers aim to build an AI tool that produces more accurate and broadly applicable risk predictions. If successful, the tool could give clinicians a better way to identify which patients need closer monitoring or preventive treatment in the 12 months following a Covid-19 infection. Beyond this specific use case, the project also aims to demonstrate that linking large, disparate datasets in this way is feasible and powerful—a method that could be applied to other health conditions, quietly improving the infrastructure behind medical decision-making.

View original technical description
Electronic health records contain a wealth of information that has the potential to be used in research. However, these kinds of datasets are vast and messy. Longitudinal studies take place over many years with participants being followed up throughout their lives. These studies have very rich datasets with information not found in health records. Secure data environments (SDEs) are a secure and efficient way of enabling trusted researchers to safely access data for approved projects. The UK Longitudinal Linkage Collaboration (UKLLC) is an SDE which brings together both kinds of data. Bringing both these types of data together has the potential to be very powerful. Electronic health records only represent those who are seeking healthcare. Longitudinal datasets only represent their participants. Combining health records with longitudinal data could broaden the range of people in a study. This could mean that findings from research combining these two kinds of data would be more applicable across the population. Project aims We want to find out whether combining health record data with longitudinal data gives better results than using health record data alone. Artificial intelligence (AI) is a useful tool when using large volumes of data from these kinds of sources. We will investigate the risk of heart attack or stroke in the 12 months following a Covid-19 diagnosis. Clinicians use scores to predict a patient’s risk. We want to understand whether our AI risk prediction tool is better than standard clinical risk scores. What we hope to achieve Our use case has the potential to improve the prediction of a patient’s risk of heart attack or stroke following a Covid-19 diagnosis. We also hope this project can demonstrate the potential of combining large datasets in this way.

Researchers

Charlotte James (Principal Investigator)

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Original classification

Translational Data Science

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