What is the extent, nature and impact of parental alcohol use on children's welfare and need for social care services in Wales? A population longitudinal study using linked administrative data

Research Question What is the extent and nature of parental alcohol use in Wales, how does this impact on children s social care outcomes, and which key factors reduce the risk of harm or enhance resilience? Background Parental alcohol use is a pervasive issue that affects up to a fifth of children, exposing them to a higher risk of abuse, neglect, mental health issues, and poor educational outcomes. Despite its significance, the extent and impact of this problem are not well-researched, largely due to challenges such as stigma and the variable definitions of use and dependency. Aims and Objectives The study aims to understand the scope and impact of parental alcohol use in Wales, focusing on its effects on children and social care services. Objectives include estimating the number of affected children, examining family characteristics, assessing the demand on children s social services, and identifying key factors that reduce harm or enhance resilience. Methods This longitudinal study will use linked administrative data from multiple sources, including health, social care, and criminal justice, housed within the SAIL Databank. The research is divided into three methodological work packages: Rapid review and data preparation: a rapid review of the existing literature to inform the study s methodology and preparation of relevant data sets for analysis. Estimation of frequency and examination of family characteristics: Using descriptive statistics to calculate the rate of children affected by parental alcohol use per 10,000 children. Rates will be broken down by different child, family, environment and system factors. Analysis of the demand on social care systems and outcomes: Employing mediation and moderation analyses to explore the pathways and factors influencing social care outcomes, with advanced techniques such as causal mediation analysis and shapley value analysis to assess the importance of predictors. Timelines for Delivery The study will span two years, starting with data preparation and a rapid literature review, followed by analysis phases that address the specific objectives, and concluding with the synthesis of findings into practice guidance and dissemination activities. Anticipated Impact and Dissemination The findings will provide comprehensive insights into the scale of parental alcohol use and its consequences, influencing policy and practice. Dissemination will include academic publications, policy briefings, and presentations at conferences, aiming to inform stakeholders across multiple sectors. Additionally, co-produced practice guidance will be developed for social workers to better support affected families.