Mathematicians and statisticians are building new computer algorithms to turn the vast streams of data from cities—phone signals, traffic sensors, crime reports—into reliable predictions about urban safety, mobility, and infrastructure. The core problem is that urban data is messy and incomplete, and the mathematical models used to simulate cities are themselves uncertain. Standard statistical methods struggle to quantify how confident we should be in a prediction, especially when computational resources are limited. ICONIC tackles this gap by fusing applied mathematics, high-performance computing, and statistics into a systematic framework for uncertainty quantification—a field that asks how to define, measure, and efficiently compute uncertainty in complex models. If successful, the project will produce algorithms that law enforcement agencies, utility companies, and transport planners can use to make better decisions. For example, a police force could allocate patrols based on a model that honestly reports its own uncertainty about where crime is likely to spike. A water company could assess the resilience of its network under different failure scenarios. The tools will be tested on crime and security first, then extended to human mobility, transport, and infrastructure as new data sources emerge. The research is fundamentally about mathematical methods, not about cities per se. But by grounding the work in real urban challenges and working directly with stakeholders—police, IT providers, policymakers—the team aims to ensure the algorithms have immediate practical value for the UK’s Future Cities sector.
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There are many interesting open questions at the interface between applied mathematics, scientific computing and applied statistics. Mathematics is the language of science, we use it to describe the laws of motion that govern natural and technological systems. We use statistics to make sense of data. We develop and test computer algorithms that make these ideas concrete. By bringing these concepts together in a systematic way we can validate and sharpen our hypothesis about the underlying science, and make predictions about future behaviour. This general field of Uncertainty Quantification is a very active area of research, with many challenges; from intellectual questions about how to define and measure uncertainty to very practical issues concerning the need to perform intensive computational experiments as efficiently as possible. ICONIC brings together a team of high profile researchers with the appropriate combination of skills in modeling, numerical analysis, statistics and high performance computing. To give a concrete target for impact, the ICONIC project will focus initially on Uncertainty Quantification for mathematical models relating to crime, security and resilience in urban environments. Then, acknowledging that urban analytics is a very fast-moving field where new technologies and data sources emerge rapidly, and exploiting the flexibility built into an EPSRC programme grant, we will apply the new tools to related city topics concerning human mobility, transport and infrastructure. In this way, the project will enhance the UK's research capabilities in the fast-moving and globally significant Future Cities field. The project will exploit the team's strong existing contacts with Future Cities laboratories around the world, and with nonacademic stakeholders who are keen to exploit the outcomes of the research. As new technologies emerge, and as more people around the world choose to live and work in urban environments, the Future Cities field is generating vast quantities of potentially valuable data. ICONIC will build on the UK's strength in basic mathematical sciences--the cleverness needed to add value to these data sources--in order to produce new algorithms and computational tools. The research will be conducted alongside stakeholders--including law enforcement agencies, technical IT and infrastructure providers, utility companies and policy-makers. These external partners will provide feedback and challenges, and will be ready to extract value from the tools that we develop. We also have an international Advisory Board of committed partners with relevant expertise in academic research, policymaking, law enforcement, business engagement and public outreach. With these structures in place, the research will have a direct impact on the UK economy, as the nation competes for business in the global Future Cities marketplace. Further, by focusing on crime, security and resilience we will directly improve the lives of individual citizens.
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