Earthquakes in Malawi could collapse thousands of unreinforced brick buildings, and this project will produce the first detailed maps and engineering guidelines to prevent that. The problem is that East African countries lack both the seismic hazard data and the low-cost construction methods needed to build safely. Current building codes are borrowed from other regions and do not account for local fault systems or materials. The research team will combine satellite measurements of ground strain, field surveys of active faults, and laboratory tests of Malawian bricks to create a complete risk framework. They will then produce practical tools: hazard-risk maps, site-specific design spectra, and guidelines for reinforcing masonry buildings using locally available materials. If successful, the framework will expand to other East African countries, enabling community-based emergency planning and giving engineers the data they need to design schools, clinics, and homes that can survive a major earthquake. The work is applied and problem-led—local partners in Malawi identified the needs, and the outputs are designed for immediate use by government agencies and builders.
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PREPARE develops a holistic seismic risk management framework for East Africa and co-produces practical tools and guidelines for enhanced disaster preparedness in close partnerships with local governmental and academic institutions. It aims at overcoming existing barriers to designing seismically resilient infrastructure in least developed countries using advanced risk assessments and suitable low-cost engineering solutions. The first case study focuses on Malawi and then extends to other East African countries. PREPARE is problem-led; actual needs have been identified and informed by local partners. The proposal spans the Schools of Engineering and Earth Sciences at the University of Bristol and Cardiff University, with project partners in Malawi and other East African countries. A major goal of this proposal is to communicate and transfer the body of research to local beneficiaries, allowing for community-based emergency responses and ensuring documentable impacts. PREPARE is composed of four work packages (WPs): WP1 - Development of integrated seismic impact assessment tools for Malawi; WP2 - Tectonic investigations of strain accumulation and release in the Malawi Rift system; WP3 - Seismic vulnerability assessment of Malawian masonry buildings; and WP4 - Expansion of the framework to other East African countries. The aims of WP1 are: to implement a comprehensive earthquake risk impact assessment methodology, with versatile capabilities to update the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability modules, to extend the method by accounting for other earthquake-induced hazards, such as liquefaction and landslide; and to produce seismic hazard-risk outcomes in the form of hazard-risk maps, site-specific seismic design spectra, and seismic design guidelines. The main goal of WP2 is to provide more accurate information regarding the potential earthquake rupture characteristics of the fault systems in Malawi (i.e. location, length and recurrence interval of large earthquakes). The results will be integrated into WP1. WP2-1 will focus on updating the fault map of Malawi, studying how fault segments interact and their relationship to geological fabrics. WP2-2 will focus on mapping the strain using satellite- and ground-based geodetic methods to identify which structures are active and the rate and depth of strain accumulation across them. The main goal of WP3 is to evaluate the seismic vulnerability of Malawian buildings through numerical analyses, supported by experimental data. In WP3-1, surveys will be conducted to gather building information in Malawi. WP3-2 will focus on testing of local bricks and brick wall structures in Malawi, whereas WP3-3 will focus on developing numerical models of typical masonry buildings in Malawi and corresponding seismic fragility models for assessing the earthquake risk (WP1). The primary goals of WP4 are to develop a strain-based seismic hazard model for East Africa, which is quite innovative, and to carry out seismic hazard-risk assessments for East African countries (using the updated tools from WP1).
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