Active Economics & Business Mathematics & Statistics

Endogenous Lying in Economic Environments

In plain English

AI plain-English summary

People who lie become desensitised to it, and this project builds economic models to capture how that psychological shift plays out in workplaces, tax systems, and insurance markets. Standard economic theory assumes people lie whenever it benefits them. In reality, lying carries costs—the mental effort of fabricating information, the guilt, and the risk of being caught. This project addresses a gap: how those costs change over time. A manager who fudges a report may find it easier to lie again, and a taxpayer who cheats once may feel less compunction the next year. The researchers will develop mathematical models of dynamic relationships—employer-employee contracts, tax audits, insurance claims, regulatory inspections—where past lies lower the psychological cost of future lies. They will also model monitoring as an active, strategic game: an auditor who varies inspection patterns can alter the liar’s perceived risk. This is fundamental theoretical work. It will not produce a policy toolkit tomorrow. But understanding how lying costs evolve could eventually inform better contract design, more effective audit strategies, and regulatory frameworks that account for human psychology rather than assuming perfect dishonesty. Similar theoretical advances in information economics have reshaped how auctions, labour markets, and public policy are designed.

View original technical description
Information economics typically assumes that agents lie when in their best interests. For instance, in mechanism design, a key part of the model description is "incentive constraints" that ensure an agent has no incentive to lie. In practice, however, people face lying costs, including the physical costs of fabricating information, psychological costs, and costs associated with the risk of being caught (e.g., penalties). This proposal aims at a better understanding of how lying costs evolve in dynamic relationships, and how relationships between economic agents are affected by lying costs that evolve with time. A key possibility is that an agent who lies is desensitized to the costs of lying and so faces lower psychological costs of lying again. The project aims at studying these questions theoretically, by developing and analysing models of dynamic relationships relevant to a range of applications (including managerial compensation, tax evasion, regulation, insurance fraud, and incentives in research). One focus is dynamic contracting models where agents' lying costs fall with past lies. Another is dynamic models of monitoring, where the monitor is an active player and the risk of being caught in a disobedient or untruthful act evolves due to the dynamic strategy of the monitor. Apart from illuminating the above economic questions, the research envisaged will aim at advances in theoretical areas such as dynamic agency and dynamic monitoring (inspection games).

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Researchers

Daniel Ferguson Garrett (Principal Investigator)

Related Research

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The Deterrence of Deception in Socio-Technical Systems
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Incentives without monetary transfers
Electoral competition with lying, inattention and targeted narratives

Original classification

Research Grant

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