Estimating Functional Vulnerability Trends Across the Coral Tree of Life

Coral ecosystems are vital to millions of people worldwide, offering immense biodiversity and essential ecosystem services. Yet, they are among the most threatened marine ecosystems on Earth, making their preservation a global priority. Despite this urgency, our ability to predict how coral biodiversity loss will affect ecosystem functioning remains very limited. The project FUTVRE-COR aims to revolutionize our understanding by employing an innovative modeling framework to assess and forecast the impacts of coral species loss on the diversity of coral functional strategies. By integrating trait, phylogenetic, and conservation status data with occurrence data at global, regional, and local scales (i.e., Jiigurru Island, Great Barrier Reef, Australia), the project will: i) provide the most comprehensive characterization of functional strategies across the coral tree of life to date, ii) identify which functional strategies are most at risk, and iii) predict future declines in functional diversity under various extinction scenarios. The insights generated will significantly enhance our understanding of coral functional vulnerability, refining target species selection for conservation and restoration, and anticipating potential trait erosion scenarios to which humans may need to adapt. Additionally, the framework's replicability across coral systems will empower stakeholders (e.g., managers and policymakers) to meet their own conservation and sustainability goals while contributing to global and EU efforts aimed at reversing marine ecosystem degradation, such as Horizon Europe’s Mission “Restore our Ocean and Waters”. Moreover, the project will present substantial research challenges and interdisciplinary training opportunities—including a secondment focused on acquiring advanced mathematical tools—equipping the candidate with invaluable skills, marking a significant leap forward in his career and laying a strong foundation for future professional growth.