Rating agencies, debt-for-nature swaps and the politics of green finance in the climate crisis

CLIMACRAs examines the interplay between credit rating agencies (CRAs) and debt-for-nature swaps (D4NS) amid the climate crisis. As the promotion of green finance gains urgency, CRAs’ behavior has become a matter of concern for global financial governance institutions, while D4NS emerge as tools to alleviate debt burdens in developing countries while funding environmental protection. Against this backdrop, the research addresses the following questions: How do CRAs respond to D4NS? Why do sovereign ratings vary post-D4NS? What does this reveal about CRAs’ role in green finance and D4NS’ potential in climate crisis mitigation? Focusing on the “Big Three” CRAs (S&P, Moody’s, Fitch), the project has four specific objectives: (i) situating CRAs and D4NS within the green finance ecosystem; (ii) understanding how D4NS are captured by sovereign rating methodologies; (iii) mapping and analysing the terms and conditions of D4NS; and (iv) identifying the key factors considered by CRAs when assessing countries that enter into D4NS. The hypothesis posits tension between CRAs’ financial system role and D4NS as green finance instruments. Methodologically, the study combines theoretical analysis of CRAs’ rating criteria with case studies of Belize, Barbados, Gabon, and Ecuador to assess CRA behavior in the context of D4NS agreements. By bridging theoretical and empirical gaps, CLIMACRAs will provide policymakers and global governance institutions with evidence to better align financial markets with climate goals. CLIMACRAs is hosted at SOAS University of London.