Models supporting practical restoration of habitats and species in Europe’s seas

MORSE supports the marine restoration in Europe, by (i) providing an integrated modelling framework, (ii) improving the knowledge base for national authorities, and (iii) demonstrating effective and climate-resilient restoration pathways. MORSE is a collaborative effort between (a) modellers advancing and linking ecosystem, pressure and climate models, (b) communication professionals producing practical guidance and training of these models and their outputs, (c) social scientists applying a Theory of Change (ToC) framework to foster the co-learning with authorities and restoration practitioners and within MORSE, as well as (d) stakeholder engagement specialists using workshops and artificial intelligence (AI)-supported interactive tools.MORSE co-develops model and evidence-based restoration pathways with authorities and practitioners. MORSE’s ToC will carry this dialogue throughout the project and finally provide an impacting knowledge base of prioritized restoration actions. Specific focus is given to capacity building through training events and diverse practical guidance material.The MORSE’s integrated modelling framework builds on the mechanistic ecosystem model Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) and Species Distribution Models (SDMs). The former simulates dynamic ecosystems and suggests habitat/species thresholds, while the latter provides simpler outputs also to data-poor conditions, typical in many sea areas. These are integrated with land and sea use models (incl. spatial models of protected areas networks, invasive species and ecosystem services), which produce outputs based on climate models following the IPBES Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Based on MORSE’s analyses of species/habitat needs, connectivity and effectiveness of active restoration, the models produce multiple alternative restoration pathways, which are prioritized by ecological, socio-economic and policy criteria. These represent the optimized restoration actions to meet restoration objectives and objectives of multiple policies.