Thanzi La Mawa: Integrated Analysis of Health System Capabilities and Effects on Population Health in Malawi and Eastern, Central and Southern Africa

Those responsible for the healthcare sector in countries in Eastern, Central and Southern Africa must decide what to do with limited resources to generate the greatest possible benefit to the health of the people they serve. We propose to develop new methods and collect new data to characterize the means by which the healthcare system produces health benefits in the context of a complex and evolving pattern of demand for healthcare. Our proposed approach is to build a detailed and theoretically-principled simulation model that couples a ‘Healthcare Production Module’ with an agent-based ‘Epidemiological Module’, that together would represent the mechanisms by which resources create healthcare that lead to health gains. We will use these methods to examine: how can the currently available resources (budgets and non-financial resources) for health be used to generate the greatest health gains; how could greater gains be achieved with more financial resources; and how should the healthcare system adapt in response to evolving burdens of diseases. We will work closely with national and regional institutions to translate the insights into strategic planning and policy and facilitate the routine usage of these methods by governmental analysts throughout the region.