Predictive Modelling for stillbirths and neonatal deaths in Sub-Saharan Africa
In plain English
AI plain-English summarySub-Saharan Africa accounts for 47% of the world's stillbirths and 46% of neonatal deaths, yet many countries in the region are on track to miss their 2030 mortality reduction targets. This project builds predictive models—using classical statistics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence—to identify pregnancies and newborns at highest risk of death. The models will be trained on health-facility and population datasets from 15 African countries, addressing gaps in data quality and preventive care that currently undermine clinical decision-making. If successful, the work could shift how health systems allocate limited resources. Instead of applying broad, one-size-fits-all interventions, clinics and ministries could target antenatal monitoring, emergency obstetric care, and neonatal support to the women and infants who need them most. The models are designed to inform policy, planning, and bedside practice, not just academic debate. Outputs include open-access datasets and analytical tools, so other researchers and governments can adapt the approach without starting from scratch. This is applied, data-driven public health research. It does not explore fundamental biological mechanisms. Its value lies in making existing data work harder to prevent deaths that are currently considered preventable but remain stubbornly common.
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