Identifying and evaluating policy mechanisms to reduce ultra-processed food consumption in the UK: health, equity and economic impacts (The UPForesight Project)

Aim: Recent evidence linking ultra-processed foods (UPFs) to poor health has led various countries to implement reduction policies, while discussions are growing in the UK – one of the highest consumers of UPFs globally – about potential government action. The Nova classification, which defines UPFs, identifies a heterogeneous food category, complicating its application in policy, with countries taking different approaches. This project seeks to identify workable policy criteria for UPFs in the UK context, evaluate potential feasible policy mechanisms to improve diets and reduce obesity, and assess their health, equity and economic impacts. Approach: Over the course of 41 months, we will (1) comprehensively map, synthesise and analyse global policy responses on UPFs and minimally processed foods (MPF), their effectiveness, producing a typology of policy approaches, and examine how these policies integrate into existing ones; (2) conduct interviews with industry insiders to understand their viewpoints on potential responses to UPF policy; (3) co-develop potential policy scenarios for reducing UPFs and increasing MPF consumption in the UK, engaging public, policy, food industry, and academic stakeholders through a series of workshops; (4) use advanced statistical modelling techniques, drawing on large, high-quality real-world datasets, to provide nationally representative estimates of the impacts of potential policy scenarios on obesity and ill health, and equity outcomes in UK children and adults; and (5) evaluate the long-term health, economic and social impacts of the potential policy scenarios on the UK population using modelling techniques previously developed by the team. Policy engagement formed the foundation for the research plan, and will act as a cross-cutting component to ensure feasible and actionable outputs relevant to the UK context. It will ensure alignment with current and emerging priorities by involving policymakers from central and local government in developing policy scenarios for modelling, with ongoing feedback mechanisms throughout the project. Project duration: 41 months. Public involvement and engagement are core elements throughout the project. A diverse group of six public collaborators have co-developed the proposal and will be integral to project governance structures, co-designing and conducting project activities, as well as contributing to the research itself. (e.g., search strategy in Objective 1, interview guide and thematic analysis in Objective 2, Objective 3 workshop design and delivery, co-writing manuscripts). A broad network of collaborating charities, along with local and national organisations will support outreach and inclusion of low-income families, people experiencing food insecurity, and underprivileged populations in the project. Anticipated impact and dissemination: The project aims to co-produce pragmatic, feasible policy recommendations, supported by growing policy and public interest and industry recognition of the need for stronger government action in the food system. A Knowledge Mobilisation and Impact Strategy, developed in the first 6 months, will maximise the sharing and utilisation of findings. Dissemination, co-designed with our public and NGO collaborators, includes national and international events, roundtable discussions, infographics, videos, webinars, social media, academic papers and government briefings.