GOLDFINCH (Fiscal INCentives for Health through UPF reduction)

Research Question GOLDFINCH: Fiscal INCentives for Health through UPF Reduction will assess whether fiscal measures (e.g. food taxes or subsidies) can reduce ultra-processed food (UPF) consumption in the UK and shift diets towards minimally processed foods to improve public health. It will explore the feasibility, acceptability, and potential health and economic impacts of UPF-targeted taxation, building on the UK’s experience with the Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL) and aligned with WHO guidance. Background Poor diet is a leading health burden in the UK, where over half of dietary energy comes from UPFs. High UPF intake is linked to obesity and non-communicable diseases and is most prevalent among lower-income households. WHO’s 2023 guidelines recommend fiscal tools to promote healthier diets. While the SDIL reduced sugar intake and prompted product reformulation, broader food taxes remain underexplored. Evidence is urgently needed on how to design UPF-focused fiscal policies that account for industry response, behavioural economics, affordability, and equity impacts. Aims and Objectives GOLDFINCH will quantify the extent to which food and drink taxation could reduce UPF consumption and improve diets in the UK. It will develop and evaluate a range of tax scenarios to identify options that are effective, publicly acceptable, and equitable. The study will assess impacts on consumer purchasing, diet quality, health outcomes, healthcare costs, productivity, and public revenues, with detailed distributional analysis by income and other characteristics. It will also explore industry reformulation incentives and model the effects of complementary policy measures. Methods The project is organised into four integrated Work Packages (WPs). WP1 ensures co-production via a Public Reference Group (PRG), eight regional focus groups, and engagement with policymakers and industry through stakeholder workshops and targeted interviews. WP2 develops fiscal policy scenarios using multiple data sources including Kantar household scanner data and the integrated UK-FOOD dataset. It will test alternative definitions of UPFs using NOVA and Nutrient Profile Models. WP3 uses dynamic household-level demand models to simulate behavioural responses, incorporating habit persistence, price sensitivity, and substitution effects. WP4 applies the Health-GPS microsimulation model to project long-term effects on obesity, chronic disease, NHS costs, life expectancy, and economic productivity. Distributional cost-effectiveness analysis will assess how outcomes vary across population groups. Timeline The 30-month project (January 2026–June 2028) features overlapping work streams. Fiscal scenarios will be finalised by Month 18; short-term impact modelling will conclude by Month 24; and long-term health and economic simulations will be completed by Month 30. Anticipated Impact and Dissemination GOLDFINCH will generate robust, UK-specific evidence to inform fiscal policy options that can improve diets and reduce health inequalities. Findings will be translated into action through policy briefs, consultations with HM Treasury, DHSC and OHID, and dissemination via the Imperial Policy Forum. Outputs will include open-access datasets and models, lay summaries, infographics, peer-reviewed articles, and international knowledge exchange to extend global relevance.