Calving Law for Ice-Climate Simulations

Global sea levels will continue to rise as ice sheets shrink in response to climate change, but predictions vary widely on how much ice will be lost in different carbon futures. The single largest source of uncertainty is iceberg calving rates. Calving can cause more rapid ice loss than any other process, but no reliable method currently exists for representing calving in numerical models. CALIX seeks to find and apply the elusive universal calving law, by adopting a radical new approach based on the self-organising nature of glacier systems. The calving law will be formulated using bulk statistical properties of calving events, and will be rooted in both detailed observations and sound theory. The calving law will be implemented in leading ice-sheet models, throughly tested, and used in model run ensembles to determine the most-probable Antarctic Ice Sheet contribution to sea level into the 22nd Century under different mitigation and business-as-usual carbon scenarios. CALIX will address a major knowledge gap in glacier science, and will revolutionise our ability to understand ice-sheet stability, predict ice-sheet response to climate change and anticipate the global consequences.