Climate Extremes, Urbanization, and Mortality in Jordan: Advancing Adaptation and Resilience in an Overheated and Understudied Region

Climate change constitutes one of the most pressing public health concerns of the twenty-first century, with global warming increasing at an unprecedented pace. The combination of high temperature and water scarcity makes the Middle East one of the most vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change. These vulnerabilities are further exacerbated by structural and geopolitical factors, including rapid population growth, accelerated urbanization, demographic aging, persistent political and military conflicts, and large-scale population displacement. Despite global recognition of the imperative need for climate action in vulnerable areas, evidence of heat-related mortality impacts in the Middle East remains scarce. This is particularly concerning considering that if these climatic trends persist, they could critically compromise the long-term habitability of the region. Within the region, Jordan presents a unique opportunity to address this research gap, as it combines substantial exposure to extreme climatic conditions with reliable data systems and established scientific expertise, offering an ideal setting for research on vulnerable populations. The overarching aim of ResilientJordan is to close this critical knowledge gap through a highly interdisciplinary approach. The project will integrate more than two decades of individual-level mortality records with daily meteorological, environmental, and greenness exposure data, applying advanced statistical methods to quantify health risks under current and projected climate scenarios. Special emphasis will be placed on vulnerable groups through stratified analyses by age, sex, and sociodemographic characteristics. Ultimately, the project will provide the first comprehensive assessment of the climate-health nexus in the Middle East, generating policy-relevant evidence to guide adaptation and resilience in one of the world's most climate-vulnerable regions.