Informing strategies for malaria eradication: a combined epidemiological and economics approach

Malaria cases have fallen sharply over the past decade, but that decline has now stalled. This project asks how to get eradication back on track by combining mathematical models of malaria transmission with economic analysis of real-world decision-making. The core problem is that what makes sense for one country—say, focusing on reducing deaths right now—may undermine the global goal of wiping out the parasite everywhere. Researchers will model these trade-offs explicitly: whether to prioritise high-burden nations or those already close to elimination, how short-term health needs conflict with long-term eradication, and what level of international cooperation is actually required. If successful, the work will produce concrete, evidence-based strategy options for funders and policymakers. Rather than relying on aspirational targets, national health ministries and global bodies such as the WHO and the Global Fund could use these findings to allocate limited resources more effectively—deciding, for example, when to invest in bed nets versus surveillance systems, or how to design financial incentives that encourage countries to act in a coordinated way. The research does not develop a new drug or vaccine; it addresses the political and economic machinery that determines whether those tools ever get used at scale.