Associated organisationsAgostinho Neto University · Clinton Health Access Initiative · Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge (INSA) · SADC Elimination 8 Initiative - Namibia · Stellenbosch University · University of Cape Town · University of KwaZulu-Natal · University of PretoriaEurope PMC affiliations are not treated as award recipients or mapped locations.
Funding£3.3M
PeriodJan 2025 — Jan 2030
In plain English
AI plain-English summary
Climate change is shifting the seasons and intensifying extreme weather across Southern Africa, and this directly alters when and where mosquitoes transmit diseases like malaria, chikungunya, and dengue. Current efforts to prevent and eliminate these diseases rely on interventions—bed nets, spraying, vaccines—that assume stable climate patterns. That assumption no longer holds. The CAMMISA Consortium will build mathematical and statistical models that link climate projections to mosquito-borne disease transmission, creating a set of climate scenarios tailored to the time scales that matter for disease control. Local modellers and analysts will work alongside local decision-makers, ensuring the tools reflect real-world conditions. If successful, the research will allow health authorities to anticipate how changing rainfall and temperature will shift disease risk years ahead. This could transform how intervention budgets are allocated—for example, timing indoor spraying before a wet season that now arrives earlier, or stockpiling treatments for dengue outbreaks that follow floods. The work is applied, not fundamental: it directly aims to optimise the cost and timing of public health responses in a region where climate change is already reshaping disease landscapes.
View original technical description
The widespread manifestation of climate change with trends in seasonality and extreme climate events have important implications for Mosquito-Borne Diseases (MBD). The transmission of MBDs is determined by several factors, including epidemiological, social, and demographic factors, as well as environmental and climate, which vary seasonally and are trending with climate change. This has important implications for the efforts to prevent, control and eliminate MBDs, and sustain elimination thereafter. The Climate-focused Analytics and Modelling for Mosquito-borne Infections in Southern Africa (CAMMISA) Consortium seeks to conduct collaborative analytical research in a 5-year programme to advance understanding of the direct and indirect impact of climate variability and change on the transmission and control of MBDs (in particular malaria, chikungunya and dengue) in Southern Africa, with an aim to optimising intervention. Using mathematical modelling, climate science and statistical modelling methods, the research programme seeks to design a set of climate scenarios across time scales relevant to MBD management to support mathematical modelling efforts to estimate the future impact and cost of MBD intervention. Through demonstrated collaboration in this grant, the CAMMISA Consortium will form a nexus of climate-and-health-focused research projects led by local modellers and analysts working closely alongside local decision- makers.
Strengthening health and disease modelling for public health decision making
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