Active Climate, Earth & Environment Lungs & Breathing

Climate Attribution of Wildfire Smoke Impacts on Priority Population Health in Southeast Asia and Australia (CANBREATHE)

In plain English

AI plain-English summary

Wildfire smoke from climate-driven fires in Southeast Asia and Australia is already killing people—around 100,000 excess deaths from Indonesia’s 2015 fires, and 417 from Australia’s 2019/20 Black Summer fires. Current health impact estimates do not pin down how much of that harm is specifically caused by climate change, nor do they focus on the most vulnerable groups: Indigenous people, pregnant women, and children. This project fills that gap by using climate attribution modelling and storylines to calculate how climate change alters the risk, intensity, and duration of extreme wildfires and the smoke exposure that follows. If successful, the research will give policymakers in Thailand, Laos, Indonesia, and Australia a concrete, evidence-based tool to link climate action directly to human health outcomes. The project also co-designs communication tools with Indigenous communities, citizen scientists, and artists—blending climate data, health impact figures, and local lived experience. This could shift how governments prioritise wildfire prevention, air quality warnings, and healthcare planning for sensitive populations, making climate adaptation efforts more targeted and accountable.

View original technical description
Climate change is increasing the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme wildfires and smoke haze pollution in Southeast Asia and Australia, exacerbating respiratory and cardiovascular illness, and contributing to thousands of premature deaths. Severe smoke haze from wildfires in Sumatra, Indonesia in 2015 resulted in around 100,000 excess deaths. In Australia, smoke from the 2019/20 Black Summer wildfires was associated with 417 deaths. Although current impact estimates highlight the public health challenge posed by wildfires, they do not specifically attribute the impacts of wildfire smoke to climate change. Nor do they specifically focus on sensitive population groups disproportionally affected by climate change. This project aims to use climate attribution modelling and storylines to assess the influence of climate change on the risk and characteristics of extreme wildfires and related smoke haze exposure, and on the health of Indigenous people, pregnant women and children in five heavily affected regions of Southeast Asia and Australia. The project engages policymakers, Indigenous peoples and communities, citizen scientists and artists in the participatory co-design of innovative communication tools based on climate attribution science, health impact data, and the culture and lived experiences of communities suffering extreme or recurrent wildfires in Thailand, Laos, Indonesia and Australia.

View the original record at the funder ↗

Researchers

Budi Haryanto (EPMC Awardee)Keonakhone Khounvilay (EPMC Awardee)Kim Oanh Nguyen (EPMC Awardee)Kraichat Tantrakarnapa (EPMC Awardee)

Related Research

Grants with similar aims, by meaning.

TWISTA (The Wide-ranging Impacts of STratospheric smoke Aerosols)
Evaluating the contribution of Fire Emissions to Transboundary Air Pollution and public health risks in the Asia-Pacific region
Extreme heat and pregnancy complications: harnessing the diverse Australian climate and population for global answers
Half a degree Additional warming: Prognosis and Projected Impacts on Health (HAPPI-Health)
Analysis of long-term ClimAte Change In Australia (ACACIA)

Original classification

Climate Impacts Award

Plain English summaries and category classifications on this site are generated by AI and may not perfectly reflect the original research.