Active Pregnancy, Children & Inherited Conditions Mathematics & Statistics

Predictive Modelling for stillbirths and neonatal deaths in Sub-Saharan Africa

In plain English

AI plain-English summary

Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 47% of the world's stillbirths and 46% of neonatal deaths, yet many countries in the region are on track to miss their 2030 mortality reduction targets. This project builds predictive models—using classical statistics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence—to identify pregnancies and newborns at highest risk of death. The models will be trained on health-facility and population datasets from 15 African countries, addressing gaps in data quality and preventive care that currently undermine clinical decision-making. If successful, the work could shift how health systems allocate limited resources. Instead of applying broad, one-size-fits-all interventions, clinics and ministries could target antenatal monitoring, emergency obstetric care, and neonatal support to the women and infants who need them most. The models are designed to inform policy, planning, and bedside practice, not just academic debate. Outputs include open-access datasets and analytical tools, so other researchers and governments can adapt the approach without starting from scratch. This is applied, data-driven public health research. It does not explore fundamental biological mechanisms. Its value lies in making existing data work harder to prevent deaths that are currently considered preventable but remain stubbornly common.

View original technical description
This project aims to address the high rates of stillbirths and neonatal deaths in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) by leveraging predictive modelling, including classical methods, machine learning (ML), and Artificial Intelligence (AI). SSA accounts for 47% global stillbirths and 46% neonatal deaths. Many SSA countries will unlikely meet their Sustainable Development Goals and Every Newborn Action Plan targets by 2030 due to poor quality of care, inadequate preventive measures, and data gaps. Current approaches are insufficient, but data science methodologies could mitigate these adverse outcomes. Using datasets from health-facilities and population studies across 15 African countries, I will develop robust predictive models for stillbirths and neonatal deaths. Advances in ML and AI are timely and can significantly improve predictions accuracy. Prediction models can enhance precision public health and resource efficiency, informing policy, planning, and clinical practice, ultimately reducing preventable stillbirths and neonatal deaths. Collaborations with academics, healthcare providers, and policymakers will ensure findings translate into actionable strategies. Outputs will include peer-reviewed publications, open-access datasets, and analytical tools, providing a framework for future research by integrating modern AI and ML techniques in SSA. Keywords: Stillbirths, Neonatal deaths, Predictive modelling, Machine learning, Artificial intelligence, Data science, Africa, Maternity registries, Demographic and Health Survey

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Researchers

Akuze Joseph Waiswa (EPMC Awardee)

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Original classification

Wellcome Accelerator Awards

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