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Strengthening health and disease modelling for public health decision making

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AI plain-English summary

Around 40 African countries plan to roll out malaria vaccines, but no one knows the best way to combine them with existing chemoprevention drugs to maximise impact and value for money. This matters because malaria remains a leading killer of young children in Africa, and the global target of a 90% reduction in cases by 2030 demands that limited resources—vaccines and drugs—be deployed as effectively as possible. Currently, decision-makers lack the evidence to choose between seasonal, perennial, or post-discharge chemoprevention strategies alongside vaccination, or to predict how different uptake levels affect cost-effectiveness. The consortium—three East African institutions and two European partners—will build mathematical and economic models that simulate these combinations at sub-national levels in high-burden countries. If successful, the research will give national malaria programmes and international agencies a practical tool to tailor intervention packages to local conditions, avoiding wasteful redundancy and maximising lives saved. It will also strengthen local modelling capacity, so African decision-makers can run their own analyses rather than relying on external experts. The work is applied, not fundamental science: its direct purpose is to inform real-world public health policy.

View original technical description
Malaria is a major cause of ill health and death in children, particularly in Africa. Chemoprevention and vaccination are thus highly recommended to protect young children from malaria infection in endemic countries. About 40 countries in Africa have shown interest in rolling out malaria vaccines with the ambition of reaching the global target of reducing malaria cases by 90% by 2030. We will model different combinations of seasonal, perennial, and post- discharge malaria chemoprevention strategies and vaccination to understand how they complement or create redundancies in terms of impact, and cost- effectiveness at different vaccine uptake levels. Our aims are i) to generate scientific evidence for optimal deployment of existing and novel malaria interventions at sub-national levels in high-burden high-impact countries, and ii) to strengthen modeling capacity and the use of modeling by decision-makers in Africa. Our consortium consists of three institutions in East Africa, and two in Europe, which will collaborate with other modeling units, national malaria and vaccination programs, and international agencies supporting malaria control programs. Our team is multidisciplinary with experienced mathematical and economic modelers, social scientists, epidemiologists, and policymakers. Keywords: malaria, vaccine, chemoprevention, cost-effectiveness, modeling "

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Researchers

Lucy Okell (EPMC Awardee)

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Original classification

Strengthening health and disease modelling for public health decision making

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