From October 2025, England will ban TV adverts for unhealthy food before 9pm, stop paid-for online junk food adverts, and end multibuy deals like "3 for 2" on pre-packaged high-fat, high-salt, high-sugar products. These are among the strictest food marketing restrictions globally, yet their real-world effects remain unknown. This evaluation will track whether the bans actually change what supermarkets sell, what adverts people see, and what households buy. The researchers will analyse supermarket pricing data, broadcast and social media advertising exposure, and household purchasing records before and after the restrictions take effect. They will then model how any shifts in purchasing affect obesity rates and other health outcomes across England, as well as the economic impact on food, media, and advertising industries. Surveys and focus groups will gauge public awareness and support for the rules. The findings will directly inform UK and international policymakers refining dietary public health policy—potentially reshaping the food environment millions of people encounter daily, from the supermarket aisle to the television screen.
View original technical description
BACKGROUND The World Health Organization recommends limiting children’s exposure to less healthy food marketing to improve diets. New restrictions on marketing of food and drinks high in fat, salt and sugar (HFSS) are due to be implemented in October 2025, comprising bans on: • adverts for HFSS products on live broadcast TV and UK on-demand services (eg ITV hub, All4) from 0530-2100h; • paid-for online adverts of HFSS products by UK operating businesses; • multibuy (eg 3 for 2) and volume based (eg 50% extra free) price promotions on pre-packaged HFSS products in England. These will be some of the strictest food marketing restrictions globally. As such, their effects are unknown. We will conduct a multi-component evaluation taking a theory guided, systems perspective to understand whether and how they impact on health and society. We will integrate our findings with those of others to provide a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the interventions. RESEARCH QUESTIONS 1. Were there pre-post intervention changes in: a. prevalence of HFSS price promotions in UK supermarkets? b. prevalence of HFSS TV and online advertising (both product and brand)? c. exposure of UK adults to HFSS TV adverts? d. availability and price of HFSS products in UK supermarkets and chain restaurants? e. purchasing of HFSS products by English households? 2. What are the modelled impacts of any changes in purchasing on: a. prevalence of overweight, obesity and other relevant health outcomes in England? b. economic performance of relevant food, media & advertising industries & wider society in the UK? 3. What proportion of people living in England were aware of and supported the interventions? What were their experiences of the interventions? 4. Who were the key actors and what were the key actions involved in development, prioritisation, delay and implementation of the interventions? 5. Were any changes in outcomes identified in RQ1-3 due to the intervention? METHODS To answer each research question (RQ), we will: RQ1: use interrupted time series analysis of supermarket, broadcast, social media, restaurant and household purchasing data collected by us or purchased from commercial suppliers. RQ2: use health impact and Computable General Equilibrium modelling, with data generated from RQ1 and elsewhere as inputs. RQ3: use data from international repeat cross-sectional surveys and focus group interviews. RQ4: expand our pre-intervention stakeholder interviews to a longitudinal qualitative study and conduct documentary analysis of consultation responses. RQ5: draw on process tracing to update our programme theory in response to emergent findings. TIMELINE 36 months IMPACT & DISSEMINATION Findings may impact refinement and development of UK and international dietary public health policy leading to improvements in population health. Dissemination will focus on four groups: international and UK national-level policymakers, international and UK civil society groups, the public and researchers. We will disseminate to policymakers and civil society via short written and video summaries, relevant conferences, and ongoing informal interactions; to the public via festivals of science, short video summaries shared via social media and press-releases of peer-reviewed findings; and to researchers via relevant conferences and peer-reviewed publications.
Plain English summaries and category classifications on this site are generated by AI and may not perfectly reflect the original research.
Is something wrong? Let us know