A small team is spending six months figuring out how to properly test whether a new data-driven prevention programme can keep older people out of hospital after a fall. The programme, called the Future of Prevention, uses predictive analytics to identify older adults at risk of falling, then offers them targeted support before a crisis occurs. But no one yet knows whether the approach actually works, or whether it is worth the money. This evaluability assessment will map out what data already exists, what is missing, and what a fair, rigorous future trial should look like. If the assessment succeeds, it will give the Department of Health and Social Care and local authorities a clear blueprint for testing similar technology-enabled prevention schemes. That could shift adult social care from a reactive, crisis-driven model toward one that systematically identifies and supports people before they need expensive emergency care. The project does not test the programme itself—it tests whether testing the programme is even possible.
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Background The ambition for public services, including adult social care, to become more preventative is longstanding. Financial pressures, uncertainty about benefits, and lack of clarity on best practice remain barriers to achieving this ambition at any degree of scale. In response, the Future of Prevention Programme was established to support local authorities in accelerating targeted, proactive prevention for older people. As part of this programme, a Community of Practice (CoP) co-developed a toolkit and delivery model for proactive prevention, which includes a data platform and predictive analytics to identify older people who would benefit from preventative support. Newton Europe and Xantura (who operate the data platform and AI analytics) are now working with a small group of local authorities to apply the delivery model, initially focusing on older people at risk of falls. SOCRATES has been commissioned to conduct a rapid evaluability assessment to inform the design of a robust future evaluation of the proactive prevention model for older people at risk of falls. Research Questions 1. What does existing evidence reveal about barriers and facilitators to evaluating digital tools, outreach, and prevention interventions? 2. What data sources are available to assess inputs, outputs, outcomes, and impacts, and what gaps remain? 3. How do stakeholders understand the Programme, its mechanisms, and evaluation criteria? 4. What are the options for a future evaluation of the Future of Prevention Programme and similar technology-enabled risk prediction platforms? Aims and Objectives The aim is to determine how an evaluation of the Programme that includes an impact and economic evaluation could best take place. Objectives are to: • Establish what is known about evaluation methods and barriers/facilitators. • Clarify goals and anticipated outcomes with stakeholders. • Develop a theory of change describing mechanisms and outcomes. • Identify required data, assess availability and quality, and highlight gaps. • Develop and assess options for a future evaluation, ensuring stakeholder acceptability. • Develop greater awareness among social care policy colleagues of possibilities and challenges for meaningful evaluation of similar initiatives. Methods The study will use three interlinked work packages (WP): • WP1 Document review: targeted scoping of academic and grey literature, Programme documentation, and evidence standards for digital health technologies to understand barriers and facilitators to evaluation and develop an initial theory of change. • WP2 Key informant interviews: with local authorities and other delivery partners, Programme leads (Newton, Xantura) and policy customer at DHSC, and potential evaluation partners (CTUs, RDNs) to explore mechanisms, evaluation criteria, data quality, and design acceptability. • WP3 Stakeholder workshops: with public advisors and delivery stakeholders to refine the theory of change, identify evaluation criteria, and agree options for future evaluation. Timelines for Delivery The project will run from December 2025 to May 2026. Anticipated Impact and Dissemination The evaluability assessment will provide a clear theory of change, identify data requirements, and outline feasible evaluation designs. Findings will be shared with Department of Health and Social Care, Newton, Xantura, and participating local authorities through reports, presentations, and workshops, and disseminated more widely via journal publication and briefings.
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