By 2050, heat-related deaths in the UK could rise from 2,000 to 7,000 per year as climate change and an ageing population collide. This research tackles a gap in current knowledge: existing models for cooling cities either look at entire urban areas or single buildings in isolation, and rarely account for how heat hits older people, those with chronic conditions, and poorer communities hardest. The researcher will build a new modelling framework that simulates adaptation measures—such as adding greenery, using reflective building materials, or increasing shade—across scales from national to individual buildings. By combining temperature data with social and environmental factors, the model will quantify how these changes affect health, wellbeing, and economic costs, including health inequalities. If successful, the work could give local authorities and care home managers concrete, co-created recommendations on which adaptations work best and where to deploy them. This would quietly reshape urban infrastructure—street layouts, building codes, and green space planning—to make cities more resilient during heatwaves, without requiring dramatic or costly overhauls.
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Background?? Climate change is already a public health emergency, and heat poses a serious risk to health. Currently there are around 2,000 deaths a year from heat in the UK, but this is expected to rise to 7,000 a year by the 2050s due to climate and demographic change.?Heat leads to other health, wellbeing and productivity impacts, and affects older people, those with existing conditions, and underserved communities disproportionately. Urban populations are at increased risk of heat exposure, due to the Urban Heat Island effect, whereby towns and cities are warmer than surrounding rural areas because of urban morphology and materials. There is potential to adapt our towns and cities to reduce urban temperatures, and create healthier, more sustainable cities: by introducing greenery and vegetation; adapting buildings, e.g., by increasing the reflectivity of materials; or by increasing shade.?Environmental modelling is a powerful way to test impacts of adaptation measures. However, the effectiveness of urban adaptation measures depends on many environmental, social and demographic factors, so a range of potential adaptations needs to be considered, through co-creation with policy makers and the public. Moreover, existing modelling studies often only consider large (city) scales or small scales (buildings) in isolation; only consider single adaptations, such as greening; or don't consider the broader implications of temperature changes on health and society more broadly. Aims? The overall aim of the research is to transform the scientific understanding of health, wellbeing, economic and societal impacts to the UK population from urban overheating in the context of climate change, via novel modelling approaches, and to evaluate and inform the implementation of adaptation solutions to reduce impacts for the most at-risk groups. Methods? I will create a novel modelling framework which simulates the impact of different adaptation solutions, at a range of spatial scales: from national to local scale, and for individual buildings. I will combine modelled temperature exposure data with social and environmental data, to quantify the impacts of urban adaptation on health, wellbeing, economic and social factors, including impacts on health inequalities. I will use case studies to investigate extremes like the heatwave in 2022, where UK temperatures exceeded 40oC, and model future climate and demographic scenarios. To help build resilience in future, I will study the potential impacts of compounding events, which may lead to multiple adverse effects, e.g., heatwaves which potentially result in wildfires and power shortages due to increased energy demand and are accompanied by air pollution episodes.?? Anticipated dissemination and impact ??Through advanced modelling and analysis, and by working via existing networks of national and local authorities, the public and caregivers such as carehome managers, I will co-create relevant targeted recommendations as to the most effective and efficient actions to reduce heat impacts in cities; these groups have already shaped my proposal. This will help to reduce health, wellbeing, and economic impacts and health inequalities from overheating, resulting in healthier, more sustainable cities in the context of climate change and more frequent and severe heatwaves in the future.
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