A town or city that builds a new cycle lane or introduces a low-emission zone has no reliable way of knowing whether the same change will work in a different place. Local authorities across the UK are investing in transport changes to encourage walking, cycling, and public transport use, but the evidence they rely on comes from specific contexts—Cambridge is not Coventry, and what succeeds in one may fail in another. This research aims to solve that problem by uncovering the mechanisms that link a transport intervention to a change in behaviour, and then testing whether those mechanisms hold up in different settings. The researcher will start by examining how London’s ultra-low emission zone altered children’s routes to school, using existing location data. They will then embed themselves in four areas—Bristol and Somerset, Cambridge, Coventry, and Greater Manchester—to co-design evaluations of local projects such as new train stations or cycling infrastructure. Finally, they will re-analyse qualitative data from past UK studies to identify recurring patterns of context and mechanism. If successful, this work will give local authorities a practical toolkit: not just a list of interventions that worked somewhere, but a clear understanding of *why* they worked and *where else* they are likely to work. That could save millions in misdirected infrastructure spending and accelerate the shift toward transport systems that improve both human and planetary health.
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Background Insufficient physical activity is an important risk factor for non-communicable diseases, but levels of activity remain low. One way to build physical activity into everyday lives is by encouraging alternatives to the car (public transport use, walking and cycling). Interventions that local authorities can implement include a range of environmental or policy changes in the transport system (e.g. low emission zones or new walking and cycling infrastructure). Evidence from systematic reviews suggests these have a range of impacts on travel and health, but there are important uncertainties about how these interventions work and when we can transfer findings from one context to another. Local authorities need to know what to do, often looking for precedents. However, every town or city that introduces changes in the transport system does so for a unique set of reasons adapted for its specific context. Investigating mechanisms and contexts is essential for unpicking complexity, understanding intervention generated inequalities and strengthening causal inference. Aims The aim of this proposal is to generate more useful evidence about how local authorities could act to change transport systems in the interest of human and planetary health. I will do this by elucidating how these changes work (mechanisms) to influence health-related transport behaviours and investigating whether and how mechanisms are related to context. These aims cut across three workpackages. Methods Workpackage 1 (year 1): I will begin by examining one particular change in the transport system: London's ultra-low emission zone, which has been shown to be effective in encouraging children to take up walking and cycling to school. Using device-based location and activity data already collected, I will explore if and how children change the routes they use to school, the frequency and duration of walking and cycling and time spent in greenspace, adding value to existing NIHR investment. Workpackage 2 (years 2 and 3): I will work as an embedded researcher in four areas (Bristol and Somerset, Cambridge, Coventry and Greater Manchester) to co-design tailored evaluations of changes in their transport systems using existing quantitative or newly collected qualitative data. Based on the ENCOMPASS framework, I will use (i) a preparatory and co-design phase, (iii) a main evaluation phase, and (iii) a sense-making and follow-up phase. Potential interventions identified include new train stations and cycling infrastructure. Workpackage 3 (years 4 and 5): I will search for qualitative data collected in UK studies of changes in transport systems. I will contact PIs to access data for re-analysis, identifying contexts and mechanisms and exploring how these interact to bring about changes in travel patterns. I will then extract higher order themes and configurations of contexts and mechanisms across datasets. Impact and dissemination I propose different approaches to dissemination to achieve impact, depending on the audience. Methods will include academic papers, conference attendance, webinars, evidence briefings, videos and blogs. I will use my Advisory Group and my wider network as conduits to disseminate findings. Dissemination, co-production and relationship building with stakeholders will be an ongoing process throughout the award.
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