Predicting Mosquito-Borne Disease Risks In Scotland's Changing Environment

Scotland’s warming climate is creating new habitats where mosquitoes that carry livestock diseases can survive and breed. Researchers are mapping where these insects are appearing, which pathogens they carry, and how changing temperatures and rainfall patterns affect their spread. This matters because Scotland has not historically faced significant mosquito-borne disease in its livestock. As the environment shifts, farmers and veterinarians lack the data needed to predict outbreaks or prepare responses. The research fills a gap in understanding which diseases—such as the livestock parasite trypanosomiasis—might emerge or re-emerge, and where they will hit hardest. If successful, the work will produce risk maps and early-warning models that livestock producers, animal health agencies, and policymakers can use to target surveillance and control measures. This could reduce economic losses from sick animals, prevent unnecessary pesticide use, and protect Scotland’s farming sector from a threat that barely existed a generation ago. The research is applied and directly tied to practical outcomes. It does not aim to cure human disease or reshape fundamental biology—it answers a concrete question about a changing landscape and what it means for the animals and people who depend on it.