A single computational model will simulate the entire human heart—all four chambers, its valves, the blood flow through them, and the surrounding circulation—to predict how structural heart diseases progress and how treatments might alter that course. This matters because current models treat the heart as a single pumping chamber, the left ventricle. That simplification fails for diastolic heart failure, heart attacks, and mitral valve leakage, where interactions between chambers, valves, and blood flow drive the disease. Clinicians lack reliable tools to predict which patients will deteriorate and which treatments will work for them. If successful, the model will give cardiologists a fast, quantified prediction—complete with error bounds—of how a given patient’s heart will remodel after a heart attack or valve repair. It will identify biomechanical markers that signal impending failure earlier than current clinical measures. The project builds statistical emulation and uncertainty quantification directly into the simulations, so the outputs are not just numbers but calibrated probabilities. That is what it will take to convince a surgeon to trust a computer’s recommendation over their own experience.
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Heart disease is the leading cause of disability and death in the UK and worldwide, resulting in enormous health care costs. Risk prediction on an individual patient basis is imperfect. Advanced medical development has already saved many lives, particularly in systolic heart failure. However, there is currently no treatment option for diastolic heart failure (with preserved ejection fraction) due to its complexity of multiple mechanisms and co-modality. Structural heart diseases, such as myocardial infarction (MI- commonly known as heart attack) and mitral regurgitation (MR, a leakage of blood through the mitral valve to left atrium in systole), where biomechanical factors are crucial, are often precursors to heart failure. MI can eventually lead to dilated heart failure despite immediate treatments post-MI. MR can induce pulmonary hypertension and oedema and subsequently, right heart overload and heart failure. The grand challenge is for these situations the heart simply cannot be modelled as an isolated left ventricle (as in most of the current studies); flow-structure interaction (FSI), heart-valve interaction, multiscale soft tissue mechanics, and tissue growth and remodelling (G&R) all play important roles in the progression of the structural diseases. This project is set up to meet this challenge by delivering a multiscale computational framework to include Whole-Heart FSI with G&R. Making use of the novel mathematical tools (constitutive laws, G&R, upscaling and statistical inference) developed by SofTMech, I will build a realistic four-chamber heart model that include heart-valve, chamber-chamber, heart-blood, and heart-circulation interactions, which will be powerful enough to model MI, MR and their pathological consequences. This work will be in close collaboration with my clinical, industrial and academic collaborators. The model will quantify which factors lead to adverse G&R and what variations are to be expected as the disease progresses. We will also identify significant biomechanical markers (e.g. constitutive parameters, energy indices, stress/strain evolution). The predictive values of these biomechanical parameters will be assessed against other established predictors of adverse remodellings, such as duration of ischaemia, final coronary flow grade after a primary percutaneous coronary intervention, and microvascular obstruction revealed by MRI. Thus, this project will generate new testable hypotheses and will be a significant step up towards more consistent decision-support for clinicians, since increasingly the pace and complexity of medical advances outstrip the ability of individual clinicians to cope with. Due to the statistical emulation and uncertainty quantification built into the project, the model predictions will be fast and quantified with error bounds on the outcome of alternative treatments. Consequently, we will also address the critical aspect of convincing clinicians that information obtained from simulations will be correct and relevant to their daily practice. The proposed research is right within the Healthcare Technologies "Optimising Treatment" and "Developing Future Therapies" priority areas, as well as targeting "New Connections from Mathematical Sciences", and "Statistics and Applied Probability" of Mathematical Sciences.
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