When a new disease emerges—whether from a natural outbreak or a deliberate release—public health agencies need to know, fast, how it will spread and what interventions might stop it. This Centre builds and runs computer models that simulate epidemics, turning raw data on transmission, geography, and human behaviour into actionable forecasts. The problem is that outbreaks are chaotic and unpredictable. Without rigorous modelling, response efforts rely on guesswork or arrive too late. The Centre fills this gap by coupling fundamental epidemiological research with a dedicated Outbreak Analysis Unit that works directly with organisations like the WHO and the UK Health Protection Agency. It also aims to build the first truly global epidemic simulator—a tool that can test scenarios across countries and continents in real time. If successful, the Centre’s models will become part of the standard toolkit for outbreak planning and response. That means faster, more targeted decisions on travel restrictions, vaccine deployment, and quarantine measures—systems that quietly protect public health but rarely make headlines. The Centre also trains policy makers and public health professionals, ensuring the science translates into practice.
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The threat to human populations from new infectious diseases has been highlighted in recent years by the 2003 SARS epidemic, the highly pathogenic H5N1 bird flu strain and ongoing concerns about bioterrorism. Preparing for such eventualities is therefore a key priority for public health agencies and governments worldwide. In this context, computer modelling of epidemics coupled with scientifically rigorous data analysis have proven themselves as powerful tools for giving insight into the spread of disease outbreaks and how we can try and control the transmission of a new disease. The Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling aims to undertaking research in epidemic modelling, and apply the tools developed to priority disease threats of concern. The Centre will provide a core infrastructure - the Outbreak Analysis Unit (OAU) - for establishing long-term collaborative relationships with key public health organisations (e.g. WHO, UN, HPA) and for translating the fundamental epidemiological research of Centre researchers into real improvements in outbreak planning and response. In addition, the Centre will develop the first truly global epidemic simulator. Staff of the Centre will also have a key role in providing training to public health professionals and policy makers.
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