A team of statisticians and epidemiologists at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine is evaluating which health interventions—from insecticide-treated nets to HIV testing—actually work in low- and middle-income countries. The problem is that many proven tools, such as malaria nets and HIV drugs, face threats from insecticide resistance, drug resistance, and weak health systems. Without rigorous evidence on how to deploy these tools effectively, gains against infectious diseases could stall or reverse. The group’s research fills this gap by running large-scale trials—for example, testing a combination HIV prevention package in South Africa and Zambia that includes household testing and immediate treatment. If successful, these studies could directly shape how governments and aid agencies spend limited resources, potentially preventing millions of cases of malaria, HIV, and tuberculosis. The work also extends to non-communicable diseases like hypertension and diabetes, and to mental health interventions for adolescents. Beyond individual trials, the grant sustains a core team of about 30 statisticians who design and analyse these studies, and it has trained 17 medical statisticians now working across Africa—building the analytical capacity needed for long-term health improvements.
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The mission of the MRC Tropical Epidemiology Group (TEG) is to help improve health in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), by conducting research that identifies and evaluates effective interventions. Infectious diseases, including malaria, HIV, tuberculosis (TB) and neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), remain a main focus of our research, as they are the leading causes of ill-health in Africa. In the next grant period, we will expand our research on emerging diseases, adolescent health and non-communicable diseases - particularly hypertension, diabetes and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, which are major disease problems in LMICs. Our research focuses on conditions that are major causes of ill-health, and for which improved prevention or treatment leads directly to improved economic and social outcomes. The importance of these issues to the UK is highlighted in the 2015 Government strategy for overseas aid, on tackling global challenges in the national interest. The scale-up of malaria control tools, primarily long-lasting insecticidal nets, and effective combination therapies, has prevented an estimated 663 million clinical malaria cases in sub-Saharan Africa since 2000, and has made malaria elimination an achievable goal in some countries. However, these gains may be threatened by insecticide resistance, drug-resistance, and resource-constraints. Within the next grant period, our focus will be on evaluating new tools, combining new and existing control strategies, and investigating sustainable and more effective deployment of these strategies. For HIV, we focus on the goal that 90% of those living with HIV know their status, 90% of known HIV-positive individuals receive sustained ART, and 90% of individuals on ART have durable viral suppression. For example, we are leading a major trial in South Africa and Zambia to evaluate the impact of a combination prevention intervention on new cases of HIV in the community. The intervention includes household-based HIV testing and linkage-to-health services by community care providers, and immediate initiation of treatment delivered through routine healthcare services. TEG research on TB includes studies to evaluate improved TB treatment strategies, improved diagnosis, prevention and control of drug-resistant TB, improved TB case finding and prevention, and evaluation of structural interventions (social support and monetary incentives) to control TB. For example, we are working on a trial to evaluate an improved electronic medication device for TB patients to reduce treatment failure and subsequent recurrence/retreatment in the absence of directly observed treatment. We will continue our long-standing work on intervention strategies for the control and elimination of NTDs, and our more recent involvement in the control of outbreaks such as the Ebola and Zika virus outbreaks. We will also continue our work on the effectiveness of lay-health worker interventions to treat common mental disorders (depression and anxiety), focusing particularly on treatment of these conditions among adolescents, in whom over half of mental health disorders start. Through the MRC Programme Grant, we leverage additional funding for research projects and support salaries for around 30 statisticians and epidemiologists, based at LSHTM. The grant is critical to enable us to recruit and retain these scientists, who have disease and methodological expertise in the design and analysis of epidemiological studies in LMICs. We collaborate with the MRC Units in The Gambia and Uganda, and over 50 other research institutes in LMICs. We will continue our initiatives to increase capacity in medical statistics in sub-Saharan Africa, for example by expanding the MRC TEG Fellowship scheme, which to date has trained 17 medical statisticians through a Masters in Medical Statistics at LSHTM, followed by a placement year. All are now working as medical statisticians in Africa.
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