The southern westerly winds are driving Antarctic ice melt and global climate shifts, but scientists lack the data from the South Atlantic to predict when critical tipping points will hit. Most climate records come from the Northern Hemisphere, leaving a blind spot in the South Atlantic that obscures how climate signals travel through the atmosphere and trigger abrupt, irreversible changes—such as the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which would raise sea levels by several metres. This Fellowship will fill that gap by developing new proxy records of wind strength and temperature from sediment and ice cores spanning the last 18,000 years, then integrating them with global climate models. If successful, the research will provide the first robust, long-term context for how the southern westerly winds drive tipping points, giving policymakers and infrastructure planners—who manage coastal defences, water supplies, and energy grids—concrete evidence on which thresholds to avoid and how fast change could come. The work is fundamentally about understanding Earth’s climate machinery; its practical value lies in replacing guesswork with data that can inform national adaptation strategies.
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Abrupt climate shifts or 'tipping points' can lead to irreversible changes in the Earth System, with far-reaching impacts on environments, ecosystems, and human societies. Examples include the collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets which would raise global sea levels by several metres. Recent studies suggest this may occur at 1.5-2C warming above preindustrial levels, a threshold we are rapidly approaching. Once considered "low-likelihood, high-impact outcomes", each fraction of a degree increase in global average temperature escalates the threat of such tipping points. There are, however, considerable uncertainties surrounding the future timing and magnitude of these tipping points, in part due to observational records of climate being too short (covering only the last 100-200 years) to fully understand their complex processes. A longer-term context is therefore essential to help inform our future response. Combined with evidence from climate models, 'proxy' records of past climate change from natural archives, such as sediment and ice cores, can provide insights into past mechanisms and thresholds of change, helping to plan for, or even avoid, the most dangerous impacts. Despite the importance of proxy climate records, there is an order of magnitude less data available from the Southern Hemisphere compared to the Northern Hemisphere. Recent work has highlighted the crucial role of the southern westerly winds in driving and propagating global climate changes. For example, marked shifts in these winds have been implicated in both past and recently observed West Antarctic ice melt. The scarcity of data is particularly acute in the South Atlantic, resulting in an incomplete understanding of how climate signals propagate atmospherically through this region and their potential for triggering climate tipping points. A large potential exists for developing and validating new climate proxy records to resolve the South Atlantic 'missing link', providing much needed new insights into past and future climate processes, mechanisms, and impacts. This Fellowship will pioneer the development of new proxies of wind strength and temperature records from this region, using the latest technologies and interdisciplinary techniques. This dual approach is vital: wind proxies will identify the atmospheric processes that propagate climate signals, while temperature reconstructions capture the sensitivity of the climate system to these changes. These new data will be integrated within a global network of proxy records and model simulations to generate a more comprehensive understanding of past climate dynamics in the region. Analysis will focus on key time periods over the last 18,000 years during which the Earth System experienced changes of global significance. This multi-faceted approach will characterise past atmospheric processes and their climate impacts, providing a valuable context and insights for the future. The importance of this task cannot be overstated, given the devastating implications of triggering irreversible climate tipping points. The first half of 2023 has witnessed record-high ocean temperatures, Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent at historic lows, extreme heatwaves worldwide, devastating wildfires, and a significant slowdown in ocean circulation. These events may be signs of impending climate tipping points, underscoring the reasons for concern and the need for urgent action. This Fellowship will position me as an international research leader at the forefront of climate tipping point science. At the University of Southampton, I am uniquely supported to lead a multi-disciplinary research team, build a progressive research culture, and to transform our understanding of the mechanisms and impacts of climate tipping points. Beyond the scientific goals, the Fellowship aims to create a tangible impact on society via education, policy, and public engagement to support a climate-informed nation.
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