The 2026 Welsh Election Study: Place, Power, and Political Engagement

The 2026 Senedd (Welsh Parliament) election will see the introduction of significant reforms to the size of the Parliament and the way in which Senedd members are elected. These reforms aim to strengthen Welsh democracy at a time when voters are increasingly distrustful of politicians and disengaged from politics. The challenge is to understand what drives this disillusionment with democracy in Wales, how perceptions of economic well-being, social cohesion and identity underpin voters’ attitudes and behaviours in different parts of Wales, and the implications of Senedd reforms for these sentiments. The Wales Election Study 2026: Place, Power and Political Engagement (WES 2026) will undertake a survey of political attitudes and behaviours at the 2026 Senedd election to increase understanding of long-term trends in Welsh voting behaviour and support research data-driven insight into shifting voter preferences in the UK and globally. It has the following objectives: To design a survey that balances continuity with previous Welsh election studies with new questions that explore the role of ‘place’, perceptions of power and dynamics of political engagement in Wales; To implement a high-quality and innovative data collection strategy to capture voters’ attitudes and behaviours pre-election, during the campaign, and after the Senedd election in May 2026, resulting in a cutting-edge public opinion data resource; To work with the Welsh research and policy communities across the project lifecycle to drive engagement with the WES 2026 project and thus maximise the usefulness and uptake of the project data across these communities; To raise awareness of the WES 2026 survey and its key findings amongst the general public and through a multi-media dissemination strategy and political forecasting tournament; To support a range of users accessing and exploiting WES 2026 survey data via an open online data dashboard. To achieve its objectives, WES 2026 will undertake a programme of work structured around survey design, data collection, and public and stakeholder engagement and dissemination. The project brings together a bilingual academic team from Swansea and Aberystwyth Universities with a strong understanding of the Welsh political context, significant experience in survey design and implementation, and relevant expertise in engaging the public and policymakers. WES 2026 will be delivered in partnership with Ipsos, a leading provider of political survey research in the UK. Collaboration with the Wales Institute of Social and Economic Research and Data (WISERD) research institute will support the development of the WES 2026 data dashboard and support the project’s impact through a range of engagement and dissemination activities with the research and policymaking communities within Wales. WES 2026 will provide researchers working on public opinion with new data for understanding voter attitudes and behaviours in Wales. The data will be aligned with previous electoral surveys in Wales and other parts of the UK; it will adhere to international quality standards to allow for comparisons over time and with other contexts. The project will also enable policymakers in Wales to deepen their understanding of citizens’ perspectives on Welsh politics to inform decision-making at local and national scales. Young people will benefit from opportunities to engage directly with the WES 2026 data through bespoke resources and workshops. This will support the delivery of the new Curriculum for Wales’s commitment to ‘active citizenship’ representing a source of research-led political education for 16- and 17-year-olds eligible to vote in Wales.