Border Change and Local Development in Europe and Beyond

Border changes through secession, unification, and territorial transfers have reshaped almost all states in Europe since 1815 and revisionism continues to threaten states worldwide until today. While the causes of border change are well-studied, its consequences for local development have been much less scrutinized. BORDERS therefore analyzes the mechanisms through which border change has affected local development in Europe and beyond over the past two centuries using new theory, data, and methods.BORDERS’ central contributions are delivered by four work packages (WP). WP1 develops a theory of the impact of border change on socio-economic development through changes in local ethnic demography, economic market exchange, state capacity, and ethnic politics. WP2 produces unparalleled longitudinal data on local development across Europe since the 18th century by using machine learning to measure village-level development from historical survey maps. Additional data from historical administrative and geographic sources will be collected to capture the relevant causal mechanisms. WP3 empirically examines the theory and mechanisms developed in WP1 across the more than 200 border changes in post-1815 Europe using methods for causal inference in geographically disaggregated panel data. WP4 tests the applicability of the theory across a global sample of border changes since 1945, examines contextual factors that explain variation over time and across cases, and investigates divergences with effects observed in historical Europe.In times of renewed border contestation, BORDERS contributes new theory and robust evidence on the local effects of border change in Europe and beyond. The project enriches debates on long-run development and provides data on historical development in Europe of unprecedented detail. Innovations in map digitization and methods to gauge the generalizability of causally identified micro-level effects contribute to the social sciences more generally.