Assessing consequences in the cascading of climate Tipping in the ocean-Marine ecology-society connection

OceanNexus aims to push understanding and prediction of climate-driven tipping points and cascading effects in the ocean–marine ecology–society nexus. As global warming accelerates, abrupt changes in ocean systems—such as the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), slowdown of the Subpolar Gyre (SPG), and persistent marine heatwaves—pose escalating risks to biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human societies. OceanNexus will harness state-of-the-art eddy-rich Earth System Models (ESMs), advanced ecosystem models, and integrated assessment frameworks to quantify near-, mid-, and long-term impacts under multiple greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Five European case studies—North Atlantic, Baltic Sea, Bay of Biscay, Northwestern Mediterranean, and Ebro Delta—will provide contrasting contexts to analyze physical, ecological, and social system responses. The project pioneers the coupling of climate, ecological, and social models, enabling robust risk assessment and scenario planning. Novel statistical and AI tools will be developed to identify early warning signals of ocean and social tipping points. OceanNexus will deliver policy-ready indicators, engage stakeholders through science-policy panels, and co-design adaptive governance strategies for safe operating spaces. Outputs will support international assessments (IPCC, IPBES, UNFCCC), enhance monitoring of Essential Climate and Ocean Variables, and foster open science and societal learning. By integrating disciplinary expertise and promoting equity, OceanNexus will strengthen Europe’s leadership in ocean–climate–biodiversity science, inform transformative policy, and build resilience against future ocean tipping events.