Modelling dengue and chikungunya transmission patterns for improved public health decision-making in the Horn of Africa (AeDST-HORN)

Dengue and chikungunya are spreading faster across the Horn of Africa, and this project will build mathematical models to predict where and when outbreaks will hit Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia. Climate change, shifting land use, and population growth are driving a surge in mosquito-borne viruses in Africa, but public health officials in the region lack reliable tools to anticipate outbreaks. Current surveillance is reactive—authorities only respond after cases appear. This project fills that gap by turning data on mosquito populations, species distribution, and human infection patterns into forecasting models that can predict transmission weeks or months ahead. If successful, the models will power online decision-support tools that guide risk-based surveillance and control. Health ministries could target mosquito control and public warnings to specific districts before an outbreak peaks, rather than scrambling after the fact. The project also builds a lasting network of institutions—from Ethiopia’s Public Health Institute to Kenya’s disease surveillance unit—that will champion model-driven decision-making long after the grant ends. The outcome is not a vaccine or a drug, but a practical system for making scarce public health resources count where they are needed most.