Using statistical and mathematical modelling to establish the transmission dynamics and burden of visceral leishmaniasis in Kenya and Ethiopia to inform targeted control and elimination strategies

EEastern Africa carries 71% of global visceral leishmaniasis (VL) burden, with 95% fatality if untreated. Despite WHO's 2030 elimination target (reducing cases by 90% to under 1500 cases annually), the region lacks effective vector interventions while experiencing increasing transmission due to outbreaks and expanding sandfly ranges potentially linked to climate change. This multidisciplinary project leverages existing TMRC-NIH data and collects new information from Kenya and Ethiopia through four complementary work packages investigating: sandfly vector ecology and insecticide resistance; VL infection prevalence and parasite genetics; mathematical modeling of transmission; and stakeholder engagement. The project will deliver crucial information on vector diversity, parasite genetics, and spatiotemporal infection maps. It will generate predictive models of sandfly densities under various climate scenarios, identify key risk factors, and determine cost-effectiveness of current and proposed interventions. Optimal treatment strategies incorporating climate change effects will be developed to meet elimination targets. By building research capacity and enhancing surveillance systems, the project will provide essential datasets applicable across Eastern Africa. The findings will directly inform targeted VL control tools and evidence-based strategies aligned with WHO's 2023-2030 framework, accelerating progress toward the 2030 elimination target in this highly endemic region.