London is about to install seven new Low Traffic Neighbourhoods, and researchers will track what happens to the 61,492 people living inside them and the 54,056 people in matched control areas for three years. The problem is that LTNs—residential streets blocked to through traffic with planters or cameras—were rolled out rapidly during the pandemic, but the evidence on their effects is patchy. Most studies lack before-and-after data and control sites, so policymakers cannot reliably say whether these schemes increase walking and cycling, reduce injuries, or simply push congestion onto boundary roads and make life harder for disabled people who depend on cars. This project fills that gap. Researchers will count walking and cycling volumes and diversity, measure boundary-road congestion and local car journey times, model health and economic impacts from changes in physical activity, injuries, and air pollution, and interview residents—especially disabled people—and policymakers to understand how experiences evolve as schemes settle in. If successful, the findings will give UK cities hard data to decide whether, where, and how to implement LTNs in ways that maximise health benefits while minimising unintended harms. Interim results will be published from late 2022, with final outputs across three years.
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RESEARCH QUESTIONS: Do new Low Traffic Neighbourhoods (LTNs) lead to more, and more diverse, walking and cycling (active travel), compared to control areas? What are the health benefits from these and other changes (e.g. reduced road injury risk)? Do these schemes cause harms, including congestion on boundary roads or longer journeys for disabled people without alternatives to cars? What factors have affected how local people have experienced and responded to LTNs, and how can policymakers navigate controversy surrounding these schemes, and make them more inclusive? BACKGROUND: LTNs are transport interventions that substantially reduce motor traffic in a contiguous set of residential streets. They can involve street furniture such as planters or camera-enforced closures. From a low baseline, LTNs were implemented rapidly in 2020, as part of the UK’s Covid-19 response. London built them fastest and 4% of its population (300,000 people) live in areas covered by the 72 LTNs introduced between March to September 2020. However, monitoring of LTN impacts has been patchy, often lacking ‘before’ data and control sites – a key limitation given dramatic ongoing changes in travel behaviour. AIM: To examine the benefits and harms of new LTN schemes, experiences of those living in or near LTNs, and how policymakers can navigate controversy. Our study focus will be 7 new London LTNs due to be implemented Autumn 2021 – Spring 2022, plus 7 matched control areas. These have a resident population of 115,548 (61,492 in LTNs, 54,056 in control areas). OBJECTIVES: 1. To collect quantitative follow-up data in LTNs and control areas for three years following the start of baseline data collection. This will cover walking and cycling volumes, walking and cycling diversity, congestion on boundary roads, and local car journey times. Baseline data collection is successfully underway, with ‘before’ data available from June for five schemes and from August/September for a further two. 2. To model health and health economic impacts. 3. To collect qualitative data about experiences of local residents, including disabled people, and of policymakers. 4. To ensure that the future of LTN-type interventions is informed by a rigorous mixed-methods evaluation. METHODS: A. Quantitative: controlled before-and-after analysis to examine both potential harms and benefits. This will include the use of controlled interrupted time series analyses for continuously-collected data. B. Health economic impact assessment, incorporating LTN impacts on physical activity, injuries, and air pollution. C. Qualitative: interviews, focus groups, and 'action research' with people living in or near the intervention, with a specific focus on disabled people; and with stakeholders implementing schemes. Longitudinal component to explore how experiences change as LTNs 'bed in'. ANTICIPATED IMPACT AND DISSEMINATION: LTNs are ambitious, scalable, novel, and controversial. UK cities are quickly rolling them out. The evidence base has not kept up, and key decisions are currently often made without data. This project is uniquely placed to provide policymakers with robust and timely evidence. We will publish interim quantitative findings early (from late 2022) followed by analysis of longer-term changes, and qualitative findings, throughout our 3-year follow-up data collection. We have an outstanding track record of disseminating our findings widely and influencing policy.
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