Potential of sub-seasonal Operational Weather and climate information for building Energy Resilience in Kenya (POWER-Kenya)

Context and Challenges Kenya Vision 2030 identifies energy as a key infrastructural enabler for social and economic development, aiming for universal energy access and 100% renewable energy by 2030. Currently, 54% of Kenyans, and up to 84% in rural areas, lack access to sustainable modern energy, relying on traditional wood fuels for cooking and heating. Kenya's energy generation is particularly sensitive to weather variability, with nearly 50% of electricity coming from weather-sensitive sources like hydro, wind, and solar power. Achieving the ambitious goal of 100% renewables requires doubling the current capacity of these weather-sensitive sources. Despite the growing reliance on renewable energy, Kenya lacks reliable weather and climate information for effective energy planning, particularly on sub-seasonal timescales (weeks to months in advance). This gap impacts crucial decisions such as generator maintenance scheduling, international market trading, water conservation, and future energy storage management. In comparison, other regions like Europe have more advanced user-relevant tools for renewable energy decision-making. Aims and Objectives POWER-Kenya seeks to bridge the gap between Kenya's increasing dependence on weather-sensitive renewable energy and the lack of reliable weather and climate information to support energy planning. The project also aims to build capacity for integrated climate-energy research in Kenya. Its objectives are: Ob1: Deliver a step-change in the underpinning physical science to support affordable, clean energy by advancing understanding of sub-seasonal predictability of weather-sensitive demand and renewables. Ob2: Build combined climate-energy research capacity to continue improvements in maintaining reliable energy supply in Africa, facilitating the creation of risk-informed tools for energy decision-making to benefit both society and the economy. Acknowledging Kenya’s continent-leading capabilities in climate and energy fields individually, the POWER-Kenya project brings together UK and African expertise in electricity demand and renewable energy modelling (Bloomfield, Oludhe, Brayshaw, Olago), with the forefront of research on sub-seasonal predictability (Hirons, Gitau, Woolnough), and expert knowledge of East African climate (Wainwright, Mutemi, Hirons) to conduct world-leading energy-climate research to support this step-change in understanding (Ob1) and build partnerships and capacity (Ob2) capable of supporting Kenya’s climate-smart shift to reliable renewables. Applications and Benefits. Universal access to affordable, clean energy helps emerging economies like Kenya progress towards their Sustainable Development Goals by building businesses and societies capable of producing and consuming sustainably for a climate-resilient future. However, access to reliable energy has societal benefits far beyond sustainable economic growth. Reliable energy access can empower women, and other marginalised groups, by improving access to services such as mobile technology, online banking, educational materials, and employment opportunities. Access to clean energy, especially for currently unconnected rural households, can enhance health outcomes by reducing reliance on traditional wood fuels, which are linked to respiratory diseases. Achieving POWER-Kenya aims to ensure Kenya's shift to clean, weather-sensitive renewables is backed by current scientific thinking and proven techniques that will help deliver the country's aim for reliable energy for all businesses and households. Beyond Kenya, POWER-Kenya outcomes will inform and support the aims of the wider Eastern Africa Power Pool (EAPP) - an institution that coordinates regional cross-border power trade and grid interconnection. KenGen, a key project partner and regional leader, is a utilities member of the EAPP. Through iterative dialogue with POWER-Kenya, KenGen will help co-design the research, by defining energy stress case studies, and ensure it remains solutions-orientated and maximises benefits for Kenya and the broader region.