Developing capacity for storm and lightning early warning for the energy sector in Ghana (EW4Energy)

Context Climate change is rapidly increasing extreme weather in Africa, threatening lives and livelihoods. Access to electrical power has numerous benefits across society, and the energy sector in Ghana is developing rapidly, but is vulnerable to lightning and storms, and would benefit from warnings tailored to its needs. Addressing the urgent need for improved early warnings in Africa, as recognised by the UN’s Early Warning for All initiative, requires greater capacity in Africa throughout the complete chain, from observations, through predictions to warnings. Numerical Weather Prediction systems developed in the Global North are much less effective in the tropics where the weather is dominated by convective storms, but there is much greater scope for nowcasts (predictions based on observations). Nowcasting in Africa has been held back by a shortage of ground-based radar observations, but AI/ML is revolutionising nowcasting and satellite-based nowcasting has proven effective. Now, for the first time, we have high-frequency satellite observations of lightning, providing a new opportunity for improved nowcasts of storms and lightning. The Challenge There is currently no ground-based lightning observing instrumentation in Ghana, for real-time information for warning, or comparison with satellite data, and limited capacity in the atmospheric physics of lightning-generating storms. Nowcasting is in its infancy in Ghana, with key systems run in the UK, and with no products tailored to the energy sector. There is an under-representation of females within physics, and a shortage of physics skills to provide climate solutions. EW4Energy addresses these challenges. Objectives EW4Energy will deploy the first ground-based lightning observing systems in Ghana, developing technical capacity in developing, building and running sensor networks. Together with ground-based data, it will exploit new space-based lightning observations to provide a new understanding of the physical processes governing the occurrence of lightning in West Africa. Exploiting synergies with ongoing UK projects on storm warning systems for Africa, EW4Energy will use its new physical insights to improve systems for the prediction of storms and lightning, and subsequent warning systems in Ghana. This will have a focus on information for the energy sector but have much wider benefits. EW4Energy builds from strong existing UK-Ghana partnerships, to deliver research and build the capacity of physics ECRs in Ghana, including female ECRs, with a leadership team that will allow an equitable partnership between institutions. Project activities addressing ECRs beyond the project team will deliver much wider capacity development. Applications and Benefits The physical science in EW4Energy will be rapidly translated to societal benefit, both within and outside the project. EW4Energy will work directly with the energy sector to co-produce information and warnings to meet their needs, and develop Ghana’s public storm and lightning warnings. EW4Energy will also work with other ongoing projects to deliver a wider impact at scale. Leeds and UKCEH are already running and developing storm nowcast systems for Africa, with the FASTA phone App used by thousands in Africa. EW4Energy will inform this ongoing development, giving rapid pull-through of EW4Energy’s physics to early warning, with benefits far beyond the energy sector. EW4Energy will transfer these nowcast systems to Ghana, building the essential physics capacity that is needed to innovate, develop and run such systems long-term, training the new generation of male and female physicists that are required to meet the challenge of addressing climate change in Africa.